Bangladesh Crisis & its Implications on India

1.

What is the history of Bangladesh?

Time Period	Events
14th Century	Bangladesh, located in South Asia, is a country with a rich history and cultural heritage. The first significant Islamic dynasty to rule the region was the Bengal Sultanate, established in the 14th century by Sultan Shamsuddin Ilyas Shah.
During British Rule	In the 18th century, the British East India Company gained control of Bangladesh, leading to the exploitation of the region's natural resources and the introduction of European-style education and administration This period also saw the rise of nationalist movements, culminating in the formation of the All India Muslim League in 1906 and the eventual partition of India and Pakistan in 1947.
1947-1971	Following the partition, East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) became part of Pakistan, but it struggled to achieve autonomy and equal rights with West Pakistan. This led to a mass movement for independence, culminating in the Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971. After a nine-month-long war, Bangladesh finally achieved independence on December 16, 1971.

2.

What is the Demographic status of Bangladesh?

Bangladesh currently has a total population of over 16.51 crore, according to the preliminary data from the “Population and Housing Census 2022” conducted by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

3.

What is the status of Literacy and Education level in Bangladesh?

4.

What is India's role in the creation of Bangladesh as a nation?

• India played a pivotal role in the Bangladesh War of Independence, which led to the creation of Bangladesh from East Pakistan in 1971.
• India and Bangladesh share deep-rooted bonds of history, language, and culture.

Role of India	Analysis
Strong support to Bangladesh	India extended strong diplomatic support to the Bengali nationalist movement led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and the Awami League, which sought independence from Pakistan. The Indian government also provided covert training and intelligence support of Mukti Bahini in the months leading to its official involvement in the War.
Humanitarian assistance	The Government of India took a firm stand of offering asylum to all those who were fleeing from East Pakistan to save their lives. India provided shelter, food, and medical aid to over 10 million refugees, despite the significant economic strain this placed on the country.
Military intervention by India	The Indian Armed Forces led by Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw , in coordination with the Mukti Bahini (Bangladeshi freedom fighters), launched a full-scale military campaign against Pakistani forces in East Pakistan. India’s military strategy included rapid and decisive operations by the Army, Navy, and Air Force, culminating in the fall of Dhaka on December 16, 1971. This led to the surrender of the Pakistani military and the independence of Bangladesh.

5.

What is the Significance of India- Bangladesh relation?

Dimensions	Significance
Geopolitical:	India shares the longest land boundary of 4,096-kilometer with Bangladesh and more than 50 transboundary rivers. “Bangladesh is India's locked and India’s North East is Bangladesh locked”. (Bangladesh is almost entirely surrounded by India on three sides and India’s northeastern states are connected to the rest of India by a narrow corridor called the "Siliguri Corridor" or "Chicken's Neck." The easiest and most efficient access for trade, travel, and strategic movement to and from the Northeast often passes through or near Bangladesh, making the region somewhat dependent on Bangladeshi cooperation.)
Economic:	India is Bangladesh's largest export destination in Asia, with approx USD 2 billion of Bangladeshi exports to India in FY 2022-23. Similarly the value of Indian exports to Bangladesh was the highest among countries in South Asia in fiscal year 2024, valued at over 11 billion U.S. dollars. In FY 2022-23, the total bilateral trade has been reported as USD 15.9 billion.
Cultural:	India and Bangladesh have a shared history, culture, and heritage which includes Bengal region, linguistic and cultural ties, passion for music, literature and the arts.
Multilateral Cooperation	India and Bangladesh are engaged in regional cooperation through multilateral forums such as SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) and Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA).
Gateway to ASEAN	Bangladesh is located at the crossroads of South Asia and Southeast Asia and is important for India's Act East Policy, which aims to build closer ties with the countries of Southeast Asia. "Bangladesh can be a bridge between ASEAN and SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation)," as quoted by Mohd. Yunus.
Gateway to ASEAN	Bangladesh is located at the crossroads of South Asia and Southeast Asia and is important for India's Act East Policy, which aims to build closer ties with the countries of Southeast Asia. Army (Exercise Sampriti): India and Bangladesh commenced the 11th edition of annual joint military exercise, SAMPRITI on 03rd October 2023 in Umroi, Meghalaya Navy (Exercise Bongo Sagar): The 4th edition of Bilateral Exercise between Indian Navy and Bangladesh Navy, BONGOSAGAR-23, and the 5th edition of Coordinated Patrol (CORPAT) by the two navies was conducted in the Northern Bay of Bengal from 07 - 09 Nov 2023.

6.

What were the recent developments which led to the coup in Bangladesh?

Reasons	Implications
Erosion of Democracy	The Parliamentary elections in 2014, 2018, and 2024 were controversial and non-participative as they were marred by low turnout, violence, and boycotts by opposition parties.
Student protest	The peaceful student protest against the freedom fighter reservation of 30% in civil services, galvanized into a nationwide movement due to the Government's heavyhanded approach. Around 130 people have been killed in the student protest clashes against quotas for government jobs in Bangladesh. The anti-quota protests have come at a time when Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was settling down to power after winning a controversial election in January that gave her an unprecedented fourth consecutive term.
Government reaction to protest	Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina had termed the protesters who opposed quotas for freedom fighters’ families as ‘razakars’ or traitors who supported the Pakistani military in carrying out large-scale atrocities against men and women in 1971. This enraged the students who demanded an apology from her and occupied public squares.
2024 Elections	The 2024 elections in Bangladesh were marked by the Opposition’s boycott, limited democratic space, erosion of human rights, economic downturn, and high youth unemployment.
Rise in Islamic fundamentalism	Religious outfits like Hefazat-e-Islam and Jamaat-e-Islami have openly opposed the secular judicial system, calling for a revolution and creation of an Islamic State in Bangladesh under Sharia Law.

7.

What will be the impact of the Bangladesh crisis on Bilateral trade?

Impact	Analysis
Bilateral Trade	India-Bangladesh bilateral trade reached USD 13 billion in FY 2023–24, making Bangladesh India’s largest trade partner in the subcontinent. Duty-free access was provided on most tariff lines under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) agreement under Hasina’s administration. Due to the ongoing crisis there might be disruption in trade among both nations in terms of value and volume.
Impact on Indian Investments	Indian businesses and investments in Bangladesh might face uncertainties due to the political upheaval. Around 25% of textile units in Bangladesh are owned by Indian companies which are impacted by the ongoing crisis. A potential free trade agreement (FTA) gained momentum in 2023 which could boost Bangladesh’s exports to India by up to 297% and India’s exports by 172%,now seems doubtful.
Power Sector Projects	Bangladesh imports nearly 2,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity from India. Adani Power's 1600 MW Godda plant, which was supposed to exclusively supply to Bangladesh is still awaiting for its dues worth over $800 million to be cleared. Indian companies are helping build Bangladesh's Rooppur nuclear plant by Rosatom, featuring VVER-1200 reactors with 2,400 MW capacity, 160 km from Dhaka.
Textile Industry	Bangladesh's garment industry, the secondlargest in the world, accounts for about 85% of its foreign exchange earnings. India's cotton exports to Bangladesh may be affected but there's an opportunity for Indian apparel manufacturers to capture some market share. The Indian textiles witnessed growth in its shares post Bangladesh crisis.
Infrastructure Projects	Infrastructure projects, including railways and cross-border connectivity initiatives, may face short-term challenges. The recent project awarded to RITES for supplying passenger coaches to Bangladesh Railway may experience some delays. Agartala - Akhaura Rail Link between Agartala (Tripura) and Akhaura (Bangladesh) would be the first train from the northeastern region to Bangladesh. India has secured a strategic win by winning operational rights for the Mongla port terminal in Bangladesh over China which is the country’s second-largest seaport after Chittagong.
India's Tourism Sector	The tourism sector in India, especially medical tourism, is expected to face disruptions. Bangladesh was the largest source of tourists to India in 2023, contributing 22% of total arrivals, the highest from any single country.
Defense ties	India has provided Bangladesh a $500-million line of credit. The Bangladesh Navy had signed a contract for ‘Made in India’ 800 tonne ocean going tug with India’s Garden Reach Shipbuilding and Engineers (GRSE) Ltd as part of the line of credit offered by India.

8.

What is the status of minorities in Bangladesh?

• The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council (BHBCUC) presents its annual report on violence against religious and ethnic minorities recording over 1,000 cases of human rights violations in a year and resulting in the death of 45 people.
• According to the BHBCUC, 70-75 percent of the violence is centered on land grabbing, often under the influence of political parties and with the complicity of government agencies.
• Before the 1971 Bangladesh war of independence against Pakistan, the minority population was about 19 per cent but now it has come down to 8.6 per cent.
• The latest census in 2023 found that 90 percent of the total population of 170 million in Bangladesh are Muslims, with Hindus still making up the largest minority group at 8 percent, while Christians represent less than 1%.

9.

Why is CAB important for Hindus?

10.

What are some other implications of the Bangladesh crisis on India?

Implications	Analysis
Security Challenge	The Bangladesh crisis comes just three years after President Ashraf Ghani’s government fell in Kabul and the Taliban regained control over Afghanistan after about two decades, giving an advantage to Pakistan and causing unease for India. According to media sources, the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), the National Democratic Front of Bodoland, and the National Liberation Front of Tripura all run camps in Bangladesh.
Border management	India shares around 4096 km of land border with Bangladesh which is still not completely fenced. There might be an increase in the incidents of Drug and Arms trafficking,cattle smuggling,cross border terrorism.
Rise in Radicalisation and Terrorism	India is worried about the possibility of rise in extremism in Bangladesh with Hasina and her Awami League party out of power. Some of the radical organizations in Bangladesh have links with the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) other terrorist outfits based in Pakistan as well as with the Pakistan Army’s spy agency InterServices Intelligence (ISI), which might like to expand its activities in the eastern neighbor of its arch-enemy India.
India’s access to North East	India has extended three lines of credit to Bangladesh since 2016 amounting to $8 billion for the development of road, rail, shipping and port infrastructure. Any disruption in Indo-Bangladesh ties could restrict India’s access to northeast, which is connected to mainland India through ‘Chicken’s Neck’ between West Bengal and Assam.
Loss of a Trusted Ally:	India has lost a key partner in Sheikh Hasina, who has been instrumental in countering terrorism and strengthening bilateral relations.
Teesta river dispute:	An agreement on Teesta river was concluded in 2011 between both countries that gave India 42.5% of the water, Bangladesh 37.5%, and the remaining 20% of the river’s water flowfree rein. The current ongoing crisis may further disrupt the river agreements among both nations.
Refugee Crisis:	Due to attacks on minority communities India will be facing a refugee influx from Bangladesh similar to the situation in 1971. BSF had to send back 1,000 men, mostly Hindus gathered at India-Bangladesh border in Cooch Behar district to enter India.
Influence of China	China has been increasing its investments in Bangladesh, particularly in the areas of infrastructure development, energy, and telecommunications. Bangladesh has been an active partner in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Bangladesh's total debt obligations to China now stand at around $17.5 billion, which may become a new victim of Chinese debt trap policy in India’s neighbor after Sri Lanka,Nepal,Pakistan.

11.

What Should be India’s approach to deal with the Bangladesh Crisis?

What is the relevance of the topic for UPSC CSE?

For Prelims: Inflation, European Union, India-Bangladesh Relations, Bangladesh Liberation War 1971, Akhaura-Agartala rail link, CAA 2019.

For Mains: India-Bangladesh Relations, Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests, Refugee crisis, Economic implication, Security challenge.

Some Previous Years Prelims Questions