CoP 29 EXPLAINED: WHAT’S AT STAKE FOR INDIA & THE WORLD?

• The primary objective of COP conferences is to negotiate and reach agreements on international climate change policies and actions.
• Parties negotiate various issues, such as emissions reduction targets, adaptation measures, financial support for developing countries, technology transfer, and capacity-building initiatives.
• The negotiations are complex and involve multiple working groups and committees.

• At the end of each COP conference, the parties adopt decisions, which are official outcomes of the negotiations.
• These decisions can take the form of protocols, agreements, or resolutions.
• One of the most significant agreements adopted under the UNFCCC is the Paris Agreement, which was reached at COP21 in 2015.

• Parties to the UNFCCC are required to submit regular reports on their greenhouse gas emissions, progress toward their climate goals, and efforts to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
• COP conferences provide a platform for reviewing these reports and assessing the collective progress in tackling climate change.

• Parties to the UNFCCC are required to submit regular reports on their greenhouse gas emissions, progress toward their climate goals, and efforts to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
• COP conferences provide a platform for reviewing these reports and assessing the collective progress in tackling climate change.

• COP conferences also feature various side events, exhibitions, and workshops organized by governments, international organizations, NGOs, and other stakeholders.
• These events provide opportunities for sharing knowledge, showcasing innovative solutions, and fostering partnerships.

• The high-level segment of the COP conference brings together heads of state, ministers, and other high-level representatives from governments.
• During this segment, leaders deliver speeches, outline their countries' commitments, and express their views on global climate action.

• COP conferences aim to include the voices of various stakeholders, including non-governmental organizations, businesses, indigenous communities, and youth groups.
• These stakeholders have opportunities to engage in discussions, present their perspectives, and advocate for their interests.

• COP conferences often include capacity-building activities and technical workshops to enhance the understanding of climate change issues, build skills, and promote knowledge sharing among participants.

• The Blue Zone is a UN-managed space where the official negotiation proceedings take place.
• All delegates within the Blue Zone must be accredited by the UNFCCC.
• As an accredited observer, UConn receives a varying number of badges for access to the Blue Zone.
• UConn's delegates are allowed to be actively involved in this space, including attending sessions and sharing their expertise, knowledge, and perspectives with participants, including Party delegates.
• The Blue Zone is also host to panel discussions, side events, exhibits, and cultural events.

• The Green Zone is managed by the host country and is home to dozens of pavilions, presentation spaces, and more.
• UN accreditation isn‟t required to participate in this space and some COPs have a Green Zone that is entirely open to the public, while others require some form of registration.

• The Kyoto Protocol was an international agreement, signed by more than 150 countries in Kyoto (Japan).
• The Parties were committed to internationally binding emission reduction targets.
• The Kyoto Protocol entered into force in February 2005 and its first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012.
• In the Kyoto Protocol, only limited reference was made to adaptation.
• The protocol mainly repeated the commitments made in the UNFCCC regarding the need for enhanced adaptation programming and financing.

Marrakesh Accords:

• At COP 7 in Marrakesh, the establishment of the National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) was announced.
• With NAPAs the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) were given the opportunity to identify their urgent climate change adaptation (CCA) priorities based on their own needs and capacities.

Nairobi Work Programme:

• At COP 12 in Nairobi, the Nairobi Work Programme (NWP) on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change was established.
• Its main aim was to assist all Parties, in particular developing countries, including the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in:
• Improving their understanding and assessment of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.
• Making informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures to respond to climate change on a sound scientific, technical and socio-economic basis.
• One of the important achievements of the NWP is the creation of the Adaptation Knowledge Portal (AKP).
• The AKP aims to provide access to information and knowledge on climate change adaptation, and on the work of related work streams under the Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Bali Action Plan:

• The Adaptation Fund, while already established in 2001 at the 7th Conference of the Parties (COP7) in Marrakesh, was officially launched in 2007 at COP 13 in Bali. The goal of the Adaptation Fund was to finance concrete adaptation projects and programmes in developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.

• COP 16 in Cancun resulted in the establishment of the Cancun Adaptation Framework, which aimed to:
• Strengthen action on adaptation in developing countries through international cooperation.
• Support better planning and implementation of adaptation measures through increased financial and technical support, and through strengthening and/or establishing regional centres and networks.
• Boost research, assessments and technology cooperation on adaptation, as well as strengthen education and public awareness.

Paris Agreement:

• The Paris Agreement provided a balance between adaptation and mitigation and featured several provisions that are relevant to Adaptation.
• COP21 marked the adoption of the Paris Agreement, aiming to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C.
• It also introduced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for each country.

• It calls on “all actors” to raise at least $1.3 trillion per year, and on developed countries to lead the mobilization of at least $300 billion, by 2035.
• The decision also refers to development finance reform, centrality of public sources, enhanced access, as well as reporting on finance.

• It launched a “Baku-Belem Roadmap to 1.3T”—a conversation to scale up finance in 2025.

• This decision identified technical options to reduce emissions in cities and encouraged collaboration between governance levels.
• Parties and observers were invited to propose topics for mitigation dialogues in 2025.

• A digital platform, to be designed in 2025, will enable exchanging information on mitigation actions.

• Countries gave instructions to the ongoing work by technical experts on indicators to measure progress towards global resilience.
• It builds up UNFCCC adaptation work with a permanent agenda item on adaptation, a Baku Adaptation Roadmap, and a high-level dialogue.

• The purpose and linkages between these various tracks are unclear, except that all should enhance the implementation.

• It defined the missing aspects for the Paris Agreement‟s mechanism:
• These are authorization and registration of emission credits, sharing proceeds for adaptation, and transition of existing forestry activities to this new mechanism.
• Work on standards, tools, guidelines, baselines, adjustments, additionality should be expedited and be closely informed by technical and scientific expertise through e.g. expert panels.

• A new 2025–2027 work plan for this platform was approved, and the secretariat will explore options for enhancing the participation of Indigenous representatives and for providing interpretation for Indigenous languages.

• The work plan focuses on convening knowledge holders, regional engagement, and collaboration with UNFCCC workstreams.

• COP29 marked a turning point with the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, initially agreed upon at COP27.
• This fund aims to provide financial support to nations suffering from climate-induced disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and sea-level rise.

• The operationalization of this fund underscores the principle of climate justice, acknowledging the disproportionate impact of climate change on vulnerable populations.
• According to a study, climate change damage costs the world between $1.7 trillion and $3.1 trillion each year by 2050.

• As COP29 concluded, several issues remained unresolved.
• Among these, the NAPs emerged as a significant point of contention, as there was a lack of progress in formulating and implementing them.

• While the discussion on NAPs made “significant progress” during the first week, parties could not reach an agreement by the conclusion of the conference.
• Differing views on key issues such as developed countries‟ obligations for means of implementation in NAPs, and the private sector’s role in adaptation finance contributed to the lack of consensus on this issue.
• The discussion has been pushed to Bonn, to recommend a draft decision for consideration at COP30.

• In the lead-up to COP29, the NCQG was anticipated to be one of the most contentious issues in the negotiations.

• According to numerous studies, climate finance needs to scale up to US$2.4 trillion annually by 2030 for developing countries, excluding China, to implement the necessary climate actions.
• Despite this background, the agreed NCQG was US$1.3 trillion annually by 2035 from various sources, with a minimum of US$300 billion annually dedicated to developing countries.
• Unsurprisingly, this target faced heavy criticism for falling short of what was needed.

• Countries in the Global South described the target as “insultingly low” to build upon the commitments made at COP28.
• The NCQG decision also included a commitment to triple annual outflows from key climate funds such as the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) by 2030 compared to 2022 levels.

• The GST, a critical mechanism for assessing the progress towards the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, includes a historical call for countries to transition away from fossil fuels.

• Developed countries were adamant about including strong language on transitioning away from fossil fuel while many developing nations, including Saudi Arabia, called for the discussions to focus exclusively on scaling up finance.
• Despite efforts to bridge divides, negotiators did not achieve consensus.

• MWP, established at COP26 and formally adopted at COP27, also saw significant divisions, particularly over whether the program should address more specific mitigation actions such as coal phase-out and fossil fuel subsidies.

• For developed countries, the inclusion of these elements was key. For China, on behalf of the LMDCs, and Saudi Arabia for the Arab Group, the inclusion of the stocktake or NDCs was a “red line”.
• On the final day of COP29, the first draft of the MWP negotiating text was released.
• It made no mention of stocktake, fossil fuels, or any guidance on the next round of NDCs and was met with criticism from the Global North countries.
• A second draft negotiation text maintained the lack of reference to the stocktake but contained a changed preamble with a softer high-level political messaging.
• Ultimately, COP29 failed to make significant progress on the MWP, and the matter was pushed to future negotiations.

• Finally, unilateral trade measures, especially the European Union‟s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), emerged as another contentious issue at COP29.
• Developing countries expressed concerns about the potential for developed countries to implement carbon border taxes or other trade restrictions that could disproportionately affect their economies.

• Restrictive unilateral measures force developing and low-income nations to bear the costs of transitioning to low-carbon economics.
• Developed countries, on the other hand, maintained that this issue falls under WTO jurisdiction and not UNFCCC.
• This issue will likely continue to be a point of contention in future climate negotiations.

• Relevance to India‟s carbon markets:
• India, as a rapidly growing economy with ambitious climate targets under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), stands to benefit significantly from the operationalisation of Article 6.4.
• The country has been advancing its domestic carbon market framework and COP29‟s decisions align with its priorities to monetise emission reductions while ensuring environmental integrity.

• One notable advancement under Article 6.4 is the standardisation of carbon market registries, which promises to harmonise the pricing of carbon credits across global markets.
• For India, this standardisation offers several advantages:
• Price stability:
• Ensures that Indian carbon credits, especially from renewable energy and reforestation projects, receive competitive and fair pricing
• Enhanced market confidence:
• A standardised system attracts investors by reducing transaction risks and creating predictable market dynamics
• Integration into global trade:
• By aligning with international norms, Indian businesses can seamlessly trade carbon credits, fostering economic integration.

• Despite its limitations, the NCQG presents significant opportunities for India.
• India‟s demonstrated leadership in renewable energy, energy efficiency and large-scale adaptation projects makes it a preferred destination for climate finance among developing economies.
• Also, at COP29, the stakeholders have agreed to work together to scale up finance to developing countries, from public and private sources, to the amount of $1.3 trillion per year by 2035.

• The COP29 outcomes underscore the urgency for developing nations to strengthen south-south cooperation to counterbalance the dominance of developed economies in climate negotiations.
• Collective efforts by the global south can help:
• Advocate for more ambitious climate finance targets.
• Ensure equitable distribution of funds aligned with the specific needs of developing countries.
• Push for mechanisms that address loss and damage effectively.

• The roadmap from Baku to Belém incorporates key milestones like the Global Stocktake 2025, a critical assessment of global progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement and highlights key priorities for catalysing climate finance.

• Building coalitions with like-minded nations to push for clearer mechanisms and accountability in climate finance.
• Advocating for innovative financing instruments, such as climate bonds and blended finance models, to supplement traditional funding sources.
• Showcasing its success stories in renewable energy and adaptation projects to attract further investments.

• India highlighted that as grant-based concessional Climate Finance is the most critical enabler to formulate and implement the new NDCs, action will get severely impacted in the absence of adequate means of implementation.
• India highlighted that the document needs to be specific on the structure, quantum, quality, timeframe, access, transparency, and review.
• The goal for mobilisation needs to be USD 1.3 trillion, with USD 600 billion of this coming through grants and grants equivalent resources.
• Expansion of the contributor base, reflection of conditional elements such as macroeconomic and fiscal measures, suggestion for carbon pricing, focus on private sector actors for scaling up resource flows as investments is contrary to the mandate for the goal.
• NCQG is not an investment goal and therefore stakeholders must accept that climate actions by Developing countries will have to be country driven, in line with their circumstances and in the manner best suited to country priorities.

• India strongly protested against changing the scope of the Mitigation Work Programme (MWP) in the draft text.
• India further cautioned against shifting of temperature goals, which need to be as per the exact language in the Paris Agreement.
• India called the introduction to the targets for 2030, 2035 and 2050 in the preamble as purely prescriptive.
• India urged to add to the text certain elements like noting the pre-2020 mitigation gap by Annex-I Parties.
• India strongly urged to recall the negative impacts of coercive unilateral measures on climate action specifically mitigation ambition and implementation.

• India strongly declined to accept any renegotiation of the shared understanding prevalent on 'Just Transitions' in the decision from Dubai.
• The statement read that the Just transition is interpreted in narrow domestic terms, implying that it is national governments that have to take actions to ensure domestic just transitions.
• However, Just transitions begin globally with Developed countries taking the lead in mitigation and ensuring that they provide the means of implementation to all Developing countries.
• The India statement further said that the possibility of domestic transitions and our right to development, and overriding priority to pursue sustainable development, is constrained by repeated and ongoing inaction of Developed countries.
• The current text completely disregards this point that we have been making about our understanding of just transitions, which is also reflected in the Dubai decision.

On the GST India stated the following:

• India does not agree to a follow up of the GST outcomes.
• As per Paris agreement, GST is supposed to only inform parties to undertake climate action.
• The new chapter on Enhancing Action, Support and International Cooperation has been drafted without adequate connection or integration with the text, parts of which are under negotiation on the UAE dialogue.
• The last text from the negotiations undertaken by Parties was one that captured the views of all Parties and was a viable basis for further negotiation.
• Further, the phrase “with developed countries (as per the synthesis report of the Biennial Reports) on track to increasing their emissions by 0.5 per cent from 2020 to 2030” may be added after the phrase “by 2.6 per cent by 2030 compared with the 2019 level”.
• Though the new chapter title is general, the text added is completely mitigation centric and completely unbalanced.
• India does not accept the way the options have been formulated in the Timing and Format sections of the UAE dialogue.

• India shared the following five points, which are essential to consider the draft decision:
• Final outcome should include indicators on means of implementation in order for this work on a global goal on adaptation to be meaningful.
• There is no need to further focus on transformational adaptation.
• Instead, it is important to focus on other approaches such as incremental adaptation, long term adaptation in the context of national circumstances.
• The data used for reporting on indicators should be taken from Party submitted reports and not from any third party databases. Therefore, this text may be dropped.
• Indicators should reflect the progress in the GGA goals.

• Governments, corporations, and citizens alike must embrace sustainable practices and champion this cause.
• Individual choices and behaviours, from energy consumption to lifestyle changes, can significantly influence carbon footprints and propel the global transition.

• Rapid phasing out of fossil fuels and scaling up renewables like solar, wind, and emerging technologies such as green hydrogen, to act as long-duration storage, are critical.
• Governments need to implement stringent emissions regulations, commit to fund carbon capture technologies to become available at a scale needed for decarbonising hard to abate sectors, and overhaul fossil fuel subsidies.

• Enhancing energy efficiency across sectors and advancing the electrification of heat and transportation through investments in efficient heat pumps, battery technology, and public transport can substantially reduce emissions.

• Wealthier nations must commit to, and of course „deliver‟, the climate finance needed for enabling the developing countries to implement the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
• The fund has been estimated by the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance to be at least $1 trillion per year by 2030.

• Strategies such as afforestation and sustainable land management can augment carbon sequestration efforts while preserving biodiversity.

• Global unity must extend beyond pledges to enforceable actions with transparent monitoring.
• A global carbon pricing system could align crossborder incentives and ensure fair contributions.