Syllabus: GS2/International Relations
Context
- The Syrian rebels took over the capital Damascus, which ended the rule of Bashar al-Assad as president of Syria.
Timeline of the Syrian War
- 2011: Uprising and Beginning of Civil War
- Pro-democracy protests erupt in Syria following the Arab Spring, the government responds with violent repression.
- The Syrian opposition forms the Free Syrian Army (FSA) to fight Assad’s regime.
- The United States and European Union call for Assad to step down.
- 2012: Escalation of Violence: The conflict turns into an all-out civil war, with multiple armed groups fighting the government and each other. The Assad regime gains support from Russia and Iran.
- 2013: Rise of Extremist Groups: The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) starts to gain territory, leading to fears of a growing extremist presence in the region.
- 2014: U.S.-led Coalition Against ISIS
- The Islamic State declares a caliphate across parts of Syria and Iraq, leading to the formation of an international coalition (led by the U.S.) to fight ISIS.
- Kurdish forces, mainly the YPG (People’s Defense Units), gain prominence in the fight against ISIS, especially in northern Syria.
- 2015: Russian Intervention
- Russia intervenes militarily in support of the Assad government, launching airstrikes against opposition groups.
- Iran increases its involvement, providing military and financial support to Assad.
- 2016: Battle for Aleppo
- One of the largest battles of the war occurs in Aleppo, with heavy bombardment by Russian and Syrian forces. The city falls to Assad’s regime by the end of the year.
- 2017: U.S. Military Involvement and Chemical Attacks
- A chemical attack on the town of Khan Shaykhun leads to U.S. missile strikes against a Syrian airbase.
- Syrian government forces, with Russian support, recapture much of eastern Syria, and ISIS is pushed back.
- 2018: Idlib and Kurdish Tensions
- A large-scale government offensive against the last major opposition stronghold in Idlib begins.
- U.S. and Turkish forces clash with Kurdish YPG fighters in northern Syria, raising tensions between NATO allies.
- 2019: Defeat of ISIS and U.S. Withdrawal
- ISIS loses its territorial caliphate in Syria, U.S. orders the withdrawal of American troops from northern Syria.
- 2020-2021: Ongoing Conflict
- The Assad regime, with Russian and Iranian support, regains control over most of Syria, but parts of the country remain under rebel control.
- The U.S. maintains a military presence in northeastern Syria to counter ISIS remnants and support Kurdish forces.
- 2022-2023: Continued Struggles
- The Hamas attack on Israel triggers fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, ultimately reducing the group’s presence in Syria and fatally undermining Assad.
- 2024: Rebels launch a new assault on Aleppo. With Assad’s allies focused elsewhere his army quickly collapses and rebels have taken most major cities, driving Assad from power.
Geographical Location of Syria
- Syria is located in the Middle East, in the western part of the Asian continent.
- It shares borders with Turkey to the north, Iraq to the east, Jordan to the south, Israel and Lebanon to the southwest, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west.
- Syria occupies a strategic position, linking the Levant region with the rest of the Arab world.
- The Levant is a historical and geographical term referring to a region in the Eastern Mediterranean.
- It includes modern-day countries Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, Palestine, and parts of Turkey .
- The Levant has been a crossroads of civilizations throughout history, known for its cultural, religious, and political significance.
India and Syria
- Friendly Ties: Syria, under the leadership of President Bashar al-Assad, maintained friendly relations with India.
- India continued to engage with Assad’s regime, particularly after major regional players like the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia re-established ties with Syria.
- Support in Internal Matters:
- Syria, a Muslim-majority country, has consistently supported India’s position on the Kashmir issue.
- Israel captured the rocky Golan Heights in the Levant region from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War.
- India has consistently supported Syria’s legitimate right to the Golan Heights.
- At the United Nations, India has also refused to support sanctions against Syria.
- Future Outlook: For India, maintaining stable relations with Syria and other key players in the Middle East has been crucial in countering Pakistan’s narratives within these Muslim-majority nations.
- India’s future engagement with Syria may likely be shaped by the new dynamics.
Significance of the Change in Regime
- Geopolitical Impact: A shift in leadership could alter Syria’s alliances, particularly with Russia, Iran, and Turkey, which have played major roles in the conflict, affecting wider Middle Eastern dynamics.
- Impact on Syrian Sovereignty: The Assad regime has maintained its power through a mix of military force and foreign support.
- A change in leadership could bring about different political, economic, and social policies.
- Humanitarian Consequences: The ongoing conflict has caused massive suffering, displacement, and loss of life.
- A change could mean a shift in human rights policies and efforts to rebuild the country.
- International Relations: The outcome of the war and any change in leadership impacts global powers’ strategies in the region, influencing U.S., Russian, Iranian, and European policies.
Impact on Middle East
- Iran: Iran has been a staunch supporter of Assad. Syria was a crucial geographical link that Iran used to move weapons and other supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- Hezbollah which has sustained significant losses in the war with Israel will become weaker without weapon supply.
- Israel: Israel has lauded the fall of the Assad regime but challenges still persist for it as the new regime is an offshoot of Al-Qaeda and is a designated terrorist organisation in Israel.
- Turkey: Since 2011, Turkey has been a key backer for the opposition rebels. Turkey used its Syrian proxies to push back Kurdish forces which pose a threat at its southern border.
- The political development in Syria comes with uncertainties for Turkey as the vacuum generated after Assad’s withdrawal could be potentially utilized by anti-Turkey Kurdish forces.
Source: TH