Myanmar’s internal situation impact on India

In Context

A pro-military junta group in Myanmar has been carrying out a series of bloody attacks mostly targeting those opposed to last year’s coup.

• The United Nations’ humanitarian relief agency says the number of people displaced within strife-torn Myanmar has for the first time exceeded 1 million, with well over half the total losing their homes after a military takeover last year.

What led to the military coup in Myanmar?

• In early 2021, the country’s Parliament had been expected to endorse recent election results and approve the next government. 
• The military refused to accept the results of the vote, which was widely seen as a referendum on the popularity of Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi. 
  • As head of the National League for Democracy, she had been the de facto civilian leader since her election in 2015.
• The military says the November 2020 general election was full of “irregularities”, and has maintained that the results are therefore not valid.

Impact on India 

• India’s Northeastern border with Myanmar remains on top of the bilateral agenda. 
• It has hampered the india  initiatives in terms of land outreach towards the vibrant economies of South East Asia and has retarded development in the Northeast.
• It has forced thousands to flee into India.
  • It has led to a series of unfortunate incidents that indicate a resurgence in anti-India posturing in the North Eastern region. 
    • This is creating impediments to the Centre’s overtures for future peace initiatives.
• It is seen as an adverse impact on its Act East policy.

Options Available for India

• Favourable bilateral relations with Bangladesh : It offers an opportunity for opening a new axis of land-sea connectivity for promoting trade and commerce with Southeast Asia. 
  • There is a need to upgrade the multitude of land routes to the seaports of Mongla and Chittagong in Bangladesh, from Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura.
  • In addition, there is a need to use inland water transport (IWT) to exploit the shared river connectivity of the Brahmaputra and Barak rivers.

• There is a need for continued engagement, both formal and informal, with the warring factions in Myanmar.
• Appropriate infrastructure such as container depots, cold storage facilities and seamless highways will have to be developed on a war footing. 
• There is a need to raise an empowered department for monitoring and facilitating projects that support India’s Act East policy, transcending all critical Ministries like Home, External Affairs, Industry, Surface-River Transport, etc.
• To defang the strike capability of the insurgent groups there is a need to create “integrated defence zones”. 
  • These should be jointly manned by the Tatmadaw (Myanmar army) and the Indian Army/Assam Rifles. 

Conclusion and Way Forward 

• India should implement an unbiased and proactive “Neighbourhood First” strategy that facilitates the Act East policy crucial for India’s long-term security and economic interests
• There is a need to ensure the continued economic development of Northeastern states. 
  • Positive overtures by the Government of India will not only improve the security situation but reassure the locals that the region’s interest is paramount..

Source:IE