China’s Growing Footprint in the Pacific Islands

In News

• The Foreign Minister of China is currently on an eight-day visit to ten Pacific Island Countries (PICs), and has co-hosted with Fiji the Second China-Pacific Island Countries.

About Pacific Island Countries (PICs) 

• SEAP Network: The Pacific Island Countries (PICs) were formerly part of the South East Asia and the Pacific (SEAP) Network.
• The Pacific Island Countries are a cluster of 14 states which are located largely in the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean between Asia, Australia and the Americas.
• They include Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Republic of Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu.
• The islands are divided on the basis of physical and human geography into three distinct parts Micronesia, Melanesia and Polynesia.
• The islands are very small in land area, and are spread wide across the vast equatorial swathe of the Pacific Ocean.
• The Network is also supported by Australia, a developed country partner that has continuously provided support to the network.

Strategic significance of the PICs

• Largest Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs):
  • Though they are some of the smallest and least populated states, they have some of the largest Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) in the world.
  • Large EEZs translate into huge economic potential due to the possibility of utilising the wealth of fisheries, energy, minerals and other marine resources present in such zones.
  • Kiribati and FSM, both PICs, have EEZs larger than that of India.
• Strategic capabilities:
  • These countries have played an important role in major power rivalry as springboards for power projection and laboratories for developing and demonstrating strategic capabilities.
• Power centre since colonial era:
  • The major powers of the colonial era competed with each other to gain control over these strategic territories.
• Major theatres of conflict during the Second World War:
  • The Pacific islands also acted as one of the major theatres of conflict during the Second World War between imperial Japan and the U.S.
  • Due to the remoteness of these islands from the Soviet Union and major population centres of the world, some of the major nuclear weapon test sites of the U.S., the U.K. and France were located here.
• Potential vote bank:
  • The 14 PICs, bound together by shared economic and security concerns, account for as many votes in the United Nations, and act as a potential vote bank for major powers to mobilise international opinion.

What does China seek to achieve from the PICs?

• China does not have any particular historical linkages to the PICs unlike the Western powers.
  • Therefore, its interest in the PICs is of relatively recent origin, and is linked to China’s rise in the past few decades.
• The PICs lie in the natural line of expansion of China’s maritime interest and naval power.
  • They are located beyond China’s ‘First Island Chain’, which represents the country’s first threshold of maritime expansion.
• The PICs are located geostrategically in what is referred to by China as its ‘Far Seas’, the control of which will make China an effective Blue Water capable Navy an essential prerequisite for becoming a superpower.
• Quadrilateral Security Dialogue has emerged as a major force in the Indo-Pacific vis-à-vis China, the need to influence the PICs has become an even more pressing matter for China.
• Apart from the vast marine richness of the PICs, the Taiwan factor plays a major role in China’s Pacific calculus.
  • China, which considers Taiwan to be a breakaway territory, is preparing for what seems like an inevitable military invasion.
  • Only four PICs Tuvalu, Palau, Marshall Islands and Nauru, currently recognise Taiwan.

Implications of China’s move

• China has increasingly started talking about security cooperation in addition to its economic diplomacy towards the PICs.
• China signed a controversial security deal with the Solomon Islands, which raised regional concerns.
• Two draft documents prepared by the Chinese gained the attention of regional leaders in the Pacific as well as the larger international community.
  • “China-Pacific Island Countries (PICs) Common Development Vision”
  • “China-Pacific Islands Five-Year Action Plan on Common Development (2022-2026)”.
• The vision gives a broad proposal about cooperation in the political, security, economic and strategic areas, whereas the action plan outlines the more specific details of cooperation in the identified areas.
• The PICs as a collective did not agree to China’s extensive and ambitious proposals, and therefore China failed to get a consensus on the deal.
• The intensification of China’s diplomacy towards the Pacific Islands have made the powers that have traditionally controlled the regional dynamics like the U.S. and Australia more cautious.
  • The U.S. has started revisiting its diplomatic priority for the region ever since the China-Solomon Islands deal.

Significance of the Indo-Pacific for India

• Geopolitical: Presence of large population (almost 50% of the world) with diverse culture in the region.
  • Presence of the world’s 7 out of 10 largest armies.
  • Presence of several regional security forums such as ASEAN Regional Forum and emerging Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.
• Geo-economic: IPR consists of the biggest Trade and Commerce routes with $5.3 trillion in trade traversed annually through this region.
  • India’s more than 90% of trade by volume and 75% by value passes through the Indo-Pacific region.
• Leadership opportunity for India: ASEAN nations see India as a “Balancer” to the growing Chinese power. India also aims to become a net security provider in the IOR region.
• Environmental Importance: Presence of world’s largest number of biodiversity hotspots which are essential to preserve the blue planet.
• Coalitions and partnerships: will help boost India’s national capabilities, enhance its reach and impact.
• Emerging zones of regional power conflict such as maritime boundary disputes in the South China Sea (SCS).

Way Forward

• China can always come back with an improvised plan which is more acceptable and use it to further pursue its final objectives incrementally. 
• Hotline can be established between the USA, China, Japan and India to build trust among the nations in the IPR.
• Inter-Organisational Dialogue Forum: QUAD and BRICS may establish annual inter-organisational level meetings to prepare a clear roadmap for the larger free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. Here, India can play a consensus maker.
• Code of Conduct for IPR region: India can insist upon adoption of code of conduct for Indo-Pacific.
• 2+2 Dialogue with China: Establishing a 2+2 dialogue mechanism with China may help India in improving democracy, diplomacy and defence in the IPR region. 

Source: TH