EU’s 2030 Emission Targets ‘Alarmingly Off-Track’ from Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C Goal

Syllabus: GS3/Climate Change; Conservation; International Treaty

Context

• Recently, Non-profit groups in Europe have taken legal action against the European Commission, arguing that the European Union’s (EU) 2030 emission targets are falling short of the ambitious goals set by the Paris Agreement.

About the Paris Agreement (2015)

• It was adopted during the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France in 2015.
• It represents a collective effort by 196 Parties to address the urgent challenge of global warming.

Temperature Goals

• The overarching goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
• Additionally, there’s a strong emphasis on efforts to limit the temperature rise to an even more ambitious target: 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
• Why the Focus on 1.5°C: Scientific evidence from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that crossing the 1.5°C threshold could lead to severe climate impacts, including more frequent and intense droughts, heatwaves, and extreme rainfall events.

Emission Reductions

• To achieve these temperature goals, countries commit to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions.
• The Agreement recognises that emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline by 43% by 2030 to stay on track for the 1.5°C target.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

• Each country communicates its climate action plan through its NDC.
• NDCs outline both mitigation (emission reduction) and adaptation measures.
• Countries are encouraged to progressively enhance the ambition of their NDCs over time.

Long-Term Strategies

• The Paris Agreement invites countries to formulate and submit long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS).
• While not mandatory, these LT-LEDS provide a vision for future development and align with the NDCs.

Global Cooperation and Support

• The Agreement establishes a framework for financial, technical, and capacity-building support to countries.
• Developed nations pledge to assist developing countries in their climate efforts.

Five-Year Review Cycle

• The Paris Agreement operates on a five-year cycle.
• Countries periodically update their NDCs, aiming for increased ambition with each iteration.

What are the challenges faced by the EU?

• Inadequate Targets: CAN-Europe and GLAN contend that the EU’s emission reduction goals are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s objective of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
  • It marks the first time the EU courts will scrutinise the adequacy of the bloc’s climate targets.
• Science-Based Approach: The European Court of Human Rights previously emphasised that states must adopt science-based emissions targets consistent with the 1.5°C goal.
  • However, the EU’s 2030 targets were not derived from the best available climate science, a point that the Commission has not contested in its defence.
• Request for Internal Review: In August 2023, GLAN and CAN-Europe submitted a Request for Internal Review (RIR) regarding the Annual Emissions Allocations (AEA) set by the European Commission for individual member states.
  • Unfortunately, the Commission denied the request, leading to the legal case filed on February 27, 2024.

Urgency

• Climate Crisis: Given the urgency of the climate crisis, the court has granted this case priority status, scheduling it for a hearing in 2025.
  • AEAs related to emissions covered by the EU Effort-Sharing Regulation, which sets national goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in sectors like transport, buildings, agriculture, small industry, and waste.
• Lack of Scientific Assessment: The heart of the legal challenge lies in the EU’s failure to conduct a proper scientific assessment of the necessary emissions reductions to keep global warming below 1.5°C.
  • The targets currently in place are deemed insufficient and could lead to a disastrous 3°C rise by 2100 if all nations follow similar paths.

What’s at Stake?

• Raising Emissions Reduction Ambition: If successful, this legal challenge could prompt the EU and its member states to significantly raise their emissions reduction ambitions.
  • Aligning with EU environmental regulations is crucial to meeting the Paris Agreement’s goals.
• Global Impact: The EU’s actions matter globally. As one of the largest economies and a major emitter, the EU’s commitment to aggressive climate targets sends a powerful signal to other nations.

Source: DTE