Syllabus :GS 2/IR
In News
- The Iranian Supreme Leader indicated that while the U.S. is not to be trusted, there is no harm in engaging in negotiations with them about nuclear cooperation.
Iran-US relations :
- The US and Iran have longstanding tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, missile capabilities, and regional influence.
- The US believes Iran’s nuclear program could lead to weapons development, while Iran insists its program is for civilian use.
Historical Linkages
- In 1953 ,The U.S. and the UK orchestrated a coup to remove Iran’s democratically elected leader, Mohammad Mosaddegh, who had sought to nationalize oil resources.
- The U.S. supported the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who established a repressive regime.
- In 1979, The Iranian Revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini resulted in the establishment of an Islamic Republic and severed diplomatic ties with the U.S.
- Since 1979, the U.S. has imposed various sanctions on Iran, including trade embargoes, arms embargoes, and sanctions on foreign banks.
Previous Engagement
- The last time the Iran-US seemed close to bilateral cooperation was in 2015, when Iran and Western countries signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
- It was aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear weapons development in exchange for relief from Western economic sanctions.
- In 2018, the Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA, leading to further deterioration in the U.S.-Iran relations.
Impact:
- The JCPOA represented a thaw in relations but was undermined by the U.S. exit in 2018.
- Iran has since accelerated its nuclear program, though it claims not to seek nuclear weapons.
- The ongoing hostility between the U.S. and Iran contributes to regional instability, with the U.S. supporting Israel and Iran opposing U.S. and Israeli policies.
- Iran faces severe economic challenges due to US sanctions, including a drop in oil exports, inflation, and decreased growth.
- Despite these troubles, Iran has historically managed to cope with sanctions.
Developments Favoring Iran:
- Saudi-Iran Peace Deal: The China-brokered peace deal with Saudi Arabia in March 2023 and Iran’s inclusion in the SCO and BRICS have improved Iran’s regional standing.
- Gaza War: Iran’s military capabilities were highlighted by its involvement in the Gaza conflict.
- Iran’s Strategic Partnerships: Iran has strengthened ties with Russia and China and is exploring opportunities with India.
- Oil and Gas Reserves: Iran has vast reserves of oil and natural gas, making it a key player in global energy markets.
India’s Engagement with Iran :
- India has enhanced its outreach in West Asia, but relations with Iran have not fully matched potential due to geopolitical and economic factors.
- India maintains multilateral ties with Iran through platforms like SCO and BRICS.
- Key agreements include the Tehran Declaration (2001) and the New Delhi Declaration (2003), although relations have been strained by sanctions and geopolitical factors.
- India and Iran signed a 10-year agreement to develop the Shahid Beheshti terminal at Chabahar port, marking a new phase in India’s long-term interest in the port.
Response of US and India’s Dilemma
- The U.S. has raised concerns about potential sanctions related to the Chabahar deal.
- There has been no clear exemption provided for this project, despite previous exemptions for humanitarian aid and support to Afghanistan.
- India faces pressure from the US to stop Iranian oil imports while maintaining strong bilateral ties with Iran
- Indian oil companies have reportedly ceased placing new orders for Iranian oil due to sanctions.
Conclusion and Way Forward
- The upcoming U.S. presidential elections could influence Iran’s situation.
- And India should monitor potential tougher actions from the U.S. and navigate its diplomacy carefully.
- India’s options include finding informal ways to continue oil imports or negotiating with the US for an exemption, while enhancing investments in Chabahar and other projects to maintain relations with Iran without directly defying US policy.
Source:TH
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