In News: Myanmar military staged a coup and dismissed the democratically elected Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) government over allegations of rigged elections.
Background of the Event: Timeline of Myanmar’s Political History:
1992: Than Shwe emerged as head of the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) and commander in chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces. Under military rule, he became ruler.
2008: Military wrote a new constitution with the following aims.
- To safeguard military Generals’ interests.
- To promote Shwe loyalists
Some controversial provisions of this constitution passed by Junta (a military or political group that rules a country after taking power by force) amidst Cyclone Nargis via referendum were:
- Military held 25 percent of the seats of the parliaments. (Art. 14)
- Military reserved the nomination of ministers of defence, internal security and border affairs for itself. (Art. 17 b)
- Military had the right to take over power in a state of emergency. (Art. 40 c)
- The National Defence and Security Council was set up as the most powerful body during the crisis with military representatives enjoying an upper hand (Art. 201)
2010: NLD under Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi started protests by boycotting 2010 elections.
Military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won
2010-2015: Military started loosening its grip on government and society.
- Political prisoners including Ms Suu Kyi were released
- Censorship was eased.
- Barak Obama’s 2012 visit marked a thaw in US-Myanmar relations.
- NLD accepted Army written Constitution
2015: NLD won the country’s first free and fair election and formed the government
- It raised hopes of Myanmar’s full transition to democracy.
2017: Military launched a campaign targeting Rohingya in name of Security in order to gain prominence against Suu Kyi.
- Commander in Chief Gen. Min Aung Hlaing was projected as the saviour of the nation.
- Social media was also used to popularise his activities forcing 7,00,000 Rohingyas to flee. (His Facebook pages were taken down after the Rohingya crackdown)
- None of these tactics helped the USDP in 2020.
2017-2020: Ms Suu Kyi tried to buy peace with the Army by supporting its endeavour in Rohingya but failed. She was also criticised by the UN for the same.
2020: Fresh elections arrived. NLD won nearly 80% seats.
- USDP raised concerns about the fairness and neutrality of elections.
2021: Just before the start of new Parliament, Military staged a coup, declared an emergency and promised a fresh election without any timeline.
Why the Military did a Coup and how it will impact Myanmar?
- Fear of Losing Power: Even limited democracy under Suu Kyi threatened Military Rulers.
- Rigged Elections: It was the official reason stated by Myanmar Army but Myanmar’s Union Election Commission has denied any such incident.
What is International Reaction?
- U.S.A. and West: Harsh Reaction.
- India: Expressed “deep concern”.
- China: Indirectly supporting Generals which means Myanmar rulers may offset Indian and Western pressure by aligning with China
Lessons which the International Community can learn:
Following debates will resurface among the International Community after this event:
- Prudence of sanctions: The sanctions won’t be fruitful at least this time because
- China, Thailand and Singapore have traditionally been key trading partners of Myanmar. Chinese support can act as a bargaining chip.
- Myanmar in the past has bypassed such sanction by doing bilateral agreements with neighbouring and other Asian Nations.
- European Union’s ‘Everything But Arms’ scheme helps the poor in Myanmar’s garment industry by allowing export of goods to the EU free of duties. If this facility is discarded, it may backfire by turning poors against the west.
- Need for accountability for crimes against humanity
- Culture of impunity during the 2017 Rohingya crisis was seen.
- Senior military officials brazenly exploited social media to mobilise public support for brutality against Rohingyas.
- Multi-layered Chinese factor
- China has appointed specific envoys for Asian affairs, who are de-facto working on Myanmar-related issues since 2013.
- Disbanded international groups in Myanmar need to be re-established.
- Ethnic & Religious fault lines including Bamar (Myanmar’s largest ethnic group), which support NLD and other minorities (35%) may be exploited by the Army to re-establish strongholds.
Challenges before India-Myanmar Future Relations:
- The tightrope between Idealism and Realpolitik: India’s wish and support for democracy in Myanmar may backfire with the presence of a deeper state like Pakistan.
- The deeper ties with Myanmar Army can’t be broken.
- Myanmar is crucial for securing and managing North East Frontiers.
- Chinese factor: India can’t afford to lose another neighbour to China.
- Gateway to South East: Myanmar is key in establishing contact with South East Asia.
- Infrastructure Engagement may get threatened in case of strained relations.
- India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral highway
- Kaladan Multi-modal transit transport network
- Special Economic Zone at the Sittwe deep-water port
- Public Clamour against Rohingya’s Persecution in India
Conclusion and Way Forward:
The damages of remaining stuck to Idealism can be very well seen from Nepal and Maldives examples. India’s power will vane to balance between the West and Myanmar’s new Regime.
Under such circumstances, India must
- Try to secure its strategic interests in Myanmar by active and deeper engagement.
- In course of time, India may cautiously try to push Myanmar’s Authoritarian regime to move towards Democracy.
- India must try to take the role of a bridge between Myanmar and the West and restraint China Factor.