Afghanistan Offers Taliban Power-Sharing

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Recently, the Afghanistan Government offered a Taliban power-sharing deal to end the ongoing violence.

About

• The Taliban seized the strategic Afghan city of Ghazni, just 150 kilometres from Kabul.
• The city lies along the major Kabul-Kandahar highway and serves as a gateway between the capital and militant strongholds in the south.

Present Situation

• Lost most northern and Western Afghanistan: Authorities in Kabul have now effectively lost most of northern and western Afghanistan and are left holding a scattered archipelago of contested cities also dangerously at risk of falling to the Taliban.
• Escalation since US troops withdrawal: The conflict has escalated dramatically since May, when US-led forces began the final stage of a troop withdrawal due to end later this month following a 20-year occupation.
• Pressure on Government increased: The loss of Ghazni will likely pile more pressure on the country’s already overstretched air force, needed to bolster Afghanistan’s dispersed security forces who have increasingly been cut off from reinforcements by road.
• Ammunition reaching wrong hands: They captured vast spoils of war their fighters had recovered in recent days, posting photos of armoured vehicles, heavy weapons, and even a drone seized by the insurgents at abandoned Afghan military bases.
• Taliban’s major focus on Prisons: The Taliban frequently target prisons to release incarcerated fighters and replenish their ranks.

(Image Courtesy: BBC)

Who are Taliban?

• The Taliban, or “students” in the Pashto language, emerged in the early 1990s in northern Pakistan following the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan.
• It is a fundamentalist Islamic force that ruled Afghanistan from 1996 until being toppled by U.S. forces in 2001, and is gaining strength as the American military withdraws. 
• The group that sheltered Osama bin Laden as he planned the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on America. 
• They were removed from power in Afghanistan by US-led forces in 2001, but the group has gradually regained strength since and is seizing territory again.

US Taliban Peace Deal

• Troops Withdrawal: The US has already withdrawn more than 90 per cent of its troops from the war-ravaged country and rest will be withdrawn by September 2021.
• Counter terrorism Commitment: The main counter-terrorism commitment by the Taliban is that Taliban will not allow any of its members, other individuals or groups, including al-Qaeda, to use the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies.
• UN Sanctions Removal: UN sanctions on Taliban leaders to be removed by three months and US sanctions by August 27. The sanctions will be out before much progress is expected in the intra-Afghan dialogue.
• Prisoner Release: Release of imprisoned Taliban and other  prisoners from the other side. 

Challenges in Afghan Peace Process

• Inherent Complexities: The Afghan dialogue has been riddled with the presence of multiple stakeholders including the Afghan government, Taliban, Haqqani Network and various tribes existing in the region. This complicates the process due to conflicting viewpoints and divergence in opinion on the direction the dialogue process should take.
• Rising Violence: Afghan peace process has assumed violent overtones due to the constant infighting among the tribes as well as the non-state actors. This makes it difficult to conduct dialogue within Afghan society. 
• Role of External Actors: Apart from the internal variations, Afghanistan has also interference from various other countries including Pakistan, US, China and other actors like Pakistan’s ISI. This complicates the process with some groups pulling the peace process in different directions as per their self-interest.
• Withdrawal of US Troops:  US withdrawal has raised concerns of Afghanistan slipping back to chaos in the absence of any forthcoming international assistance.
• Role of Pakistan: The international community has outlined the role of Pakistan in promoting terror groups like Taliban for meeting its own political ends. International media has criticized Pakistan for its intentions of toppling the Afghan government and installing the Taliban regime as its puppet in Afghanistan.

What can India do?

• Broader Diplomatic Engagement: India should consider appointing a special envoy dedicated to Afghan reconciliation. The envoy can ensure that Indian views are expressed at every meeting, broaden engagement with the Afghan government and other political actors, and reach out to certain Taliban representatives.
• Idea of Double Peace: India has been advocating the need for peace within Afghanistan as well as peace in the external environment of Afghanistan. 
• Continued Training and Investments: India should provide more military training to Afghan security forces and invest in longer-term capacity-building programs. It should actively support and invest in the National Directorate of Security (for example, by providing training and sharing intelligence). Finally, given the continued levels of violence and the impact of the coronavirus on the Afghan economy, India should expand its development assistance.
• Working With and Through Others: India should look to broaden its engagements with Iran and Russia, explore opportunities for cooperation (as limited as they might be) with China, and find common ground with the United States on Afghanistan’s future. This does not mean forcing competing interests to align; it means investing in a wider diplomatic initiative with the view to carve out areas of convergence. 
• Role of United Nations: India sees a bigger role of the United Nations in the Afghan peace process as an influencer of peace. It has prescribed a larger role of the international community in putting pressure on the regional players and other stakeholders towards finding a solution.

Way Ahead

• Demonstrate Solidarity: The Afghanistan peace process is a rare opportunity for global solidarity and to demonstrate the world’s capability of raising an infant democracy from the ashes of a terror-based regime. 
• Financial Aid: There is a need to engage with all stakeholders amid an Afghan-led, Afghan-controlled and Afghan–owned peace process. However, it would require substantial financial commitments from the richer nations as per their capability.
• Dialogue with Taliban: There is a need to make it clear to Taliban and other non-state actors what is expected out of them in order to let them continue having a presence in the political establishment.
• Checking Pakistan’s Involvement: For any progress to be expected, Pakistan needs to be stopped from promoting violence and terror in Afghan society.
• Role of India: India would do well to strengthen the peace process and contribute to the Afghan redevelopment efforts.

Sources: TH