Finlandization

In Context

• Recently, France’s President Emmanuel Macron was said to have suggested the “Finlandization” of Ukraine for defusing tensions with Russia. 

What is ‘Finlandization’?

• The term refers to Finland’s strict neutrality during the Cold War, enshrined in a 1948 treaty with Moscow when tensions between the Soviet Union and the West were at a high.
• The treaty ensured Finland that unlike other countries in Eastern Europe, it would not face a Soviet invasion, but in return, it agreed to stay out of NATO and allowed the giant next door to exercise significant influence over its domestic and foreign policy.
• Article 1 of the treaty reads: “In the eventuality of Finland, or the Soviet Union through Finnish territory, becoming the object of an armed attack by Germany or any state allied with the latter (meaning, essentially, the United States), Finland will, true to its obligations as an independent state, fight to repel the attack.
• The principle of neutrality was rooted in the Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance that Finland signed with the USSR in April 1948.

Significance

• The treaty protected it from being attacked or incorporated into the USSR like the Baltic and eastern European states. It allowed the country to pursue the path of democracy and capitalism while staying out of the conflict between the great powers.

Ukraine and Finlandization

• Ukraine, formerly a part of the Soviet Union, has increasingly tilted toward the West, economically and politically, while resisting Russian influence.
• In 2008, NATO said it planned eventually for Ukraine to join the alliance, a popular idea within the country, though it has never actually applied for membership and NATO officials say it would not happen any time soon.
• “Finlandization” would allow Moscow a heavy hand in Ukrainian affairs. It goes against what Ukraine has been striving for, that is joining NATO and the E.U.

Way Ahead 

• Ukraine should have the right to freely choose its economic and political associations, including with Europe.
• Ukraine should not join NATO, a position I took seven years ago when it last came up.
• Ukraine should be free to create any government compatible with the expressed will of its people. Wise Ukrainian leaders would then opt for a policy of reconciliation between the various parts of their country.

Source: IE