Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India: Implications for Pakistan and India

Syllabus: GS2/International Relations

Context

• Recently, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), chaired by Prime Minister of India, held the Indus Waters Treaty (1960) with Pakistan ‘in abeyance with immediate effect’ in the aftermath of the terror strike in Pahalgam.

About the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)

• It was signed in 1960 by India’s Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s President Ayub Khan to regulate water-sharing between the two countries.
  • It was brokered by the World Bank.
• According to IWT:
  • India controls the Eastern Rivers (Beas, Ravi, Sutlej).
  • Pakistan controls the Western Rivers (Indus, Chenab, Jhelum).
• Under the IWT, India received rights over 20% of the system’s water, while Pakistan received 80%.
  • India is allowed limited use of western rivers for non-consumptive purposes like hydropower, but cannot block or significantly alter flows.

Implications for Pakistan of IWT Suspension

• Water Security Threat: Pakistan is highly dependent on the Indus River system for agriculture, drinking water, and hydropower.
  • Suspension would leave Pakistan vulnerable to upstream control by India, especially over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), potentially disrupting water availability.
• Agricultural Impact: Punjab and Sindh, the key agricultural regions, rely heavily on Indus waters.
  • A reduction or delay in water flows could devastate crop cycles, threatening food security and livelihoods.
• Energy Crisis: A significant portion of Pakistan’s power comes from hydroelectric dams on the Indus.
  • Disruption in water flow could reduce energy generation, worsening the power crisis, especially in summer.
• Geopolitical Fallout: Suspension would escalate tensions with India, possibly leading to military posturing, cross-border skirmishes, or further diplomatic isolation.
• International Repercussions: Pakistan could appeal to the UN, World Bank, or ICJ, framing India as violating a binding treaty.
  • Suspension may invite international pressure on India to reinstate the treaty, possibly straining India’s global relations.
• Domestic Unrest: Water shortages and crop failures could fuel domestic discontent, protests, and political instability.
• Dependence on China or Other Allies: Pakistan may look for alternative water management partnerships or increase strategic alignment with China.

Feasibility of Suspension of the IWT by India

• Strategic Leverage: India’s move signals a strong diplomatic stance, reinforcing its position against terrorism.
  • It could serve as a negotiation tool to pressure Pakistan into policy changes.
• Treaty Framework and International Law: IWT lacks an exit clause, meaning neither India nor Pakistan can legally abrogate it unilaterally. The Treaty has no end date, and any modification requires the consent of both parties.

• However, under Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, a fundamental change in circumstances can justify withdrawal.
  • The United Nations and World Bank could push for negotiations to prevent regional instability.
• India’s Water Management Challenges: Diverting water from the Western Rivers requires major infrastructure projects, including dams and reservoirs.
  • Environmental concerns, such as river ecosystem disruptions, must be addressed.
• Pressure on Pakistan’s Internal Stability: Water scarcity could exacerbate inter-provincial disputes within Pakistan, particularly between Punjab and Sindh.
  • Political instability may lead to increased militant activity along the border.

Source: IE