Shifting Monsoon Patterns

In Context

• Monsoon rainfall in India has been surplus by around 7% this year though with extreme inequity. 

More about the monsoon review

• Surplus precipitation:
  • Central and southern India saw a sharp surge in rainfall. 
  • Rains in Central India were surplus by 20% and in southern India by 25%, with the last month seeing several instances of flooding in Kerala, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. 
• Deficit:
  • On the other hand, large parts of U. P., Bihar, Odisha have seen large deficits. The east and northeast of India have reported a 17% shortfall and the northwest 2%. 
• Impact on agriculture:
  • This has impacted the sowing of the kharif, or summer crop. 
  • Rice production:
    • Paddy planting has been impacted with sown area 5.51% lower than last year, according to the Agriculture Ministry. 
    • The Centre is expecting a minimum of six-million-tonne shortfall in rice production and this is likely to elevate inflation.
• Worldwide implications:
  • During the last six months, entire South Asia has been reporting a series of extreme weather events. 
  • While Bangladesh, India and Pakistan have battled severe floods, China is reeling under massive drought conditions.

Causes:

• La Nina:
  • These heavy rains are premised on a La Nina, the converse phenomenon of the El Nino.
  • While, El Ninos is linked to reduced rains over India, La Ninas indicate surplus rainfall. 
  • ‘Triple dip’ La Nina:
    • India is seeing an extended spell of the La Nina, called a ‘triple dip’ La Nina which is a phenomenon lasting across three winter seasons in the northern hemisphere. 
  • The retreat of the monsoon:
    • This is only the third time since 1950 that a triple-dip La Nina has been observed. 
    • This, in part, is why for the third year in a row, India is seeing surplus rain in September, a month that usually marks the retreat of the monsoon.
• Human-induced climate change:
  • It amplifies the impacts of naturally occurring events like La Niña and is increasingly influencing our weather patterns.
  • Extreme El Niño and La Niña events may increase in frequency from about one every 20 years to one every 10 years by the end of the 21st century under aggressive greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Way Ahead

• Slow onsets can still be taken care of through adaptation and resilience ideas but these kinds of big events are very difficult to cope with. 
  • That is where the main issue lies as the country would then have to divert development money to climate finance to combat climate change.
• Agriculture:
  • India’s hundreds of millions of rice producers and consumers are being affected negatively by these unprecedented changes which are also raising concerns over food security.
    • Short-term actions & solutions:
      • In UP, the Agriculture Meteorology division has advised carrying out the transplantation of rice and suggested the use of short-duration rice varieties. 
        • Experts have encouraged the cultivation of red gram.
        • Farmers are also recommended to opt for inter-cropping.
      • For farmers in Jharkhand, the Agrimet has suggested adopting measures to conserve moisture in the soil. 
        • No sowing is advised until there is 50 to 60mm rainfall and sufficient moisture for at least three consecutive days. 
      • Short-duration rice, millet, maize, and arhar.
• Limiting warming:
  • The current atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are higher than at any time in the last two million years. 
  • To align with a 1.5°C target of limiting warming, global CO2 emissions must reach net zero around 2050, with global GHG emissions reaching net-zero 15-20 years later. 

Source: TH