Loss to Indian GDP due to Pandemic Linked School Closure: ADB Study

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• According to ‘Potential Economic Impact of COVID-19 related School Closures’, a study by Asian Development Bank, India’s GDP would take a big hit due to pandemic-linked learning losses for students.

Vital Findings of the Study

• Highest Decline: GDP of India would see the highest decline in South Asia due to learning losses for the young in account of longest school closures due to COVID-19 lockdown.
• Loss projections: As per study, it is anticipated that there would be $10.5 billion loss in 2023 (0.34% of GDP) and nearly $99 billion by 2030 (3.19% of GDP).
• Share of global loss: India might account for over 10% of the global GDP decline of $943 billion estimated by the ADB on account of earning losses in 2030.
• Loss of employment: The closure would impact employment avenues in the coming decade. 

• Jobs for skilled labour are expected to decline by 1% and for unskilled labour by 2% in 2030.

• More impact on Rural India: Pandemic-induced school closures have been more extensive in rural areas.

• Students in rural areas and in the poorest and second wealth quintile have been worst-hit as they lack access to smartphones/tablets and stable Internet connection needed to study online.

• Migration to unskilled jobs: Losses would be significant both on account of earnings and learnings of the future workforce. 

• A Sizable number of students impacted would migrate to the unskilled labour force thus impacting their financial wellbeing.

• Declines in global GDP: The Report has forecasted that the decline in global GDP would be 0.19% in 2024, 0.64% in 2028 and 1.11% in 2030.

Way Forward

• Big numbers: India has the highest number of children enrolled in primary and secondary education among the Asian economies. 

• In tertiary education, India is second only to China. Hence the sheer numbers are too big to impact the level of workforce and national income in the coming decade.

• Investment and skilling: India needs to put in greater investments in education and skilling with a focus on narrowing the digital divide.
• Clear Roadmap: Government must chalk out a roadmap to help students recover lost opportunities by conducting assessments through the country.
• Identifying the gaps: It is pertinent to identify the learning gap and specific learning needs of individuals. 

• Effective learning programs should be devised to offer appropriate support to the affected students so as to bridge the gaps.

• Special focus on marginalised and rural India: Government must provide adequate funding and resources to young populations most affected by closures, such as those from the poor, rural and socially disadvantaged groups.
• Arresting the dropout rate: It is important to keep school-age children going to schools by providing financial support and incentives.

• Additional support mechanisms should be devised for skilling and training the youths already out of school.