Home  /  Daily Current Affairs  /  28-05-2021 / Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: WMO

Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: WMO

Last updated on August 2nd, 2024 Posted on May 28, 2021 by admin1  760

In News

Recently, the report ‘Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update’ has been produced by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), in collaboration with the United Kingdom’s Met Office.

About the Report

  • The annual update harnesses the expertise of internationally acclaimed climate scientists and the best prediction systems from leading climate centres around the world to produce actionable information for decision-makers.
  • It takes into account natural variations as well as human influences to provide the best possible forecasts for the coming five years.
    • The forecast models do not take into consideration changes in emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols as a result of the Covid-19 lockdown.
  • The development of prediction capability was driven by the WMO co-sponsored World Climate Research Programme.
  • Climate prediction groups from all over the world contributed to predictions, enabling a higher quality product.

Major Findings for 2021-2025

  • There is about a 40 per cent chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level in at least one of the next five years.
  • There is a 90 per cent likelihood of at least one year becoming the warmest on record, which would dislodge 2016 from the top ranking.
  • High-latitude regions are likely to be wetter and there is an increased chance of more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic compared to the recent past (defined as the 1981-2010 average).
  • It confirms the trend highlighted in the State of the Global Climate 2020, released by the WMO earlier this year.
    • In the coming five years, the annual mean global temperature is likely to be at least 1°C warmer, within the range of 0.9°C to 1.8°C, than pre industrial levels.
    • The report highlighted the acceleration in climate change indicators like rising sea levels, melting sea ice, and extreme weather, as well as worsening impacts on socio-economic development.
  • The chance of temporarily reaching 1.5°C has roughly doubled compared to last year’s predictions.
    • This is mainly due to using an improved temperature dataset to estimate the baseline rather than sudden changes in climate indicators.
  • 2020 was one of the three warmest years on record and the six years since 2015 have been the warmest on record. 2011-2020 was the warmest decade on record.

(Image Courtesy: WMO)

India Specific Findings

  • Warming of the north Indian Ocean during the next five years, particularly the Arabian Sea, could make India even more vulnerable to deadly cyclones.
    • Maps on surface temperature anomalies compared to the 1981-2010 period show the Arabian Sea could be 0.5°-1°C warmer than the 29-year period.
  • The long-term surface warming recorded in the western Indian Ocean region is in the range of 1.2°-1.4°C. This has a huge impact on the monsoon and severe weather events.
  • India’s average temperature has risen by around 0.7°C during 1901-2018 but Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the tropical Indian Ocean has risen by 1°C on average during 1951–2015.
    • It is markedly higher than the global average SST warming of 0.7°C, over the same period.
  • India has taken various steps to fight the problem of climate change on the national level.
    • These include the eight missions under the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) and other government schemes like UJALA scheme, BS-VI emission norms, National Clean Air Programme, efforts towards renewable energy, etc.

Significance

  • The report underlines the need for climate adaptation.
  • It shows that the world is getting measurably closer to the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
  • It works as a wakeup call that the world needs to fast-track commitments to slash GHG emissions and achieve carbon neutrality.
  • The year 2021 and climate change negotiations, COP26 (to be held in November 2021) have been widely described as a “make-or-break” chance to prevent climate change.
  • Tackling climate change is high on the agenda of the G-7 Leaders Summit, which will be hosted by the UK in June 2021.

Concerns

  • Increasing temperatures mean more melting ice, higher sea levels, more heatwaves and other extreme weather.
  • These changes will lead to greater impacts on food security, health, the environment and sustainable development.
  • Only half of 193 WMO Members have state of the art Early Warning Services (EWS).
  • Also, there are severe gaps in weather observations especially in Africa and island states, having a major negative impact on the accuracy of warnings.
  • In 2017, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that a breach of the threshold set by the Paris Agreement will mark a menacing milestone in the planet’s warming.

Suggestions

  • Countries should continue to develop the services that will be needed to support adaptation in climate-sensitive sectors such as health, water, agriculture and renewable energy.
  • They should develop and promote EWS so that the adverse impacts of extreme events can be reduced.
  • Technological advances now make it possible to track GHG emissions back to their sources which should be used as a means of precisely targeting reduction efforts.
World Meteorological Organisation
  • It is an intergovernmental organization with a membership of 193 Member States and Territories. 
  • It was established by the ratification of the WMO Convention on 23 March 1950
    • It originated from the International Meteorological Organization (IMO), the roots of which were planted at the 1873 Vienna International Meteorological Congress.
  • It is the specialised agency of the United Nations for meteorology (weather and climate), operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences a year later. 
  • The Secretariat, headquartered in Geneva, is headed by the Secretary-General. Its supreme body is the World Meteorological Congress.
  • The State of the Global Climate-World Meteorological Organization issued the first state of the climate report in 1993. 
    • The report was initiated due to the concerns raised at that time about projected climate change.

Paris Agreement

  • It is a landmark agreement as it brings all nations into a common cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects, for the first time.
  • It is a legally binding international treaty on climate change which replaced the Kyoto Protocol, an earlier related agreement.
  • It was adopted by 196 parties at COP 21 in Paris, in December 2015 and entered into force in November 2016.
  • Conference of Parties (COP) is the supreme decision-making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
  • Aims: To limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius as compared to pre-industrial levels.
  • Frameworks
    • Technology Framework.
    • Capacity Building Framework.
    • Transparency Framework.
  • Implementation
    • It requires economic and social transformation, based on the best available science.
    • It works on a 5-year cycle of increasingly ambitious climate action carried out by countries.
    • Countries have submitted their plans for climate action known as the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
    • To better frame the efforts towards the long-term goal, it invited countries to formulate and submit by 2020 long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS).
      • LT-LEDS provide the long-term horizon to the NDCs and are not mandatory.
      • Nevertheless, they place the NDCs into the context of countries’ long-term planning and development priorities, providing a vision and direction for future development.

(Image Courtesy: WEF)

Source: WMO

 
Previous article Proposed National Mission on Use of Biomass
Next article Facts in News