India and Eurasian vacuum

In News 

• Russia’s traditional sphere of influence in Eurasia is now under growing contestation due to Ukraine invasion

About Eurasia

• Asia is the largest continent. It covers about one third of the total land area of the earth. The continent lies in the Eastern Hemisphere. The Tropic of Cancer passes through this continent. Asia is separated from Europe by the Ural mountains on the west. 
• The combined landmass of Europe and Asia is called Eurasia (Europe + Asia).
• Opportunities : The Eurasian market could open up new export opportunities in medical tourism, IT and IT-enabled services, besides traditional sectors like spices, marine products, coir and rubber.
• The Eurasian Economic Union : It is an international organisation for regional economic integration. It has international legal personality and is established by the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union.
  • It provides for free movement of goods, services, capital and labour, pursues coordinated, harmonised and single policy in the sectors determined by the Treaty and international agreements within the Union.

Russia’s support for India in the region 

• Due to close ties with  the Soviet Union, India had privileged access to the Central Asian Republics in the Cold War era.
  •  But India could not do much with that since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
• Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, India has largely relied on Russia to support its role in the region. 
• India worked with Russia and Iran, for example, to counter the Taliban in Afghanistan in the second half of the 1990s. 
• Russia had also actively campaigned for India’s membership of the SCO despite China’s reservations. 
• Russia was also ready to supply arms to India during its military confrontation with China in eastern Ladakh in the summer of 2020.

Concerns

• China’s Factor : China’s rapid rise in the new millennium has begun to change the regional equations.
  • China has not only become a leading economic partner for the Central Asian states, but its security ties with Moscow have deepened amidst the sharpening conflict between Russia and the West. 
  • The impressive expansion of China’s Belt and Road initiative across central Asia and Russia, onto the shores of the Atlantic, and Europe’s growing economic interdependence with China have added to Beijing’s powerful leverages in Eurasia. 
• Ukraine war : The Russian invasion of Ukraine has alarmed its close neighbours. 
  • If Russia can claim that Ukraine had no right to independent existence and invade it, Moscow could do much the same to other republics that were part of the Soviet Union.

• As Russia weakens, conflicts are breaking out within its Eurasian sphere of influence. 
  • Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan — have been at each other’s throats on their disputed border. 
  • Equally important have been the clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia — two dialogue partners of the SCO. 

Related Initiatives

• International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC):It  is a 7,200-km multi-modal transport corridor that combines road, rail and maritime routes connecting Russia and India via central Asia and Iran. 
  • The corridor is expected to consolidate the emerging Eurasian Free Trade Area.
• Interactions: In November 2021, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval convened a meeting of his counterparts from Central Asia in Delhi to discuss the Afghan situation. 
  • India also invited the five Central Asian leaders to participate as special guests at the Republic Day celebrations but the Covid surge in January prevented their presence in Delhi
  • India is also renewing its engagement with Turkey, which is emerging as an important force in Central Asia, which was once known as Turkestan.
  • India has long looked at Iran to gain geographic access to inner Asia. 

Conclusion and Way Forward 

• The Eurasian vacuum created by the weakening of the Russian sphere of influence is unfamiliar geopolitical terrain for India, but it is full of new possibilities as well.
• India will have to find new ways to secure its interests in Eurasia. 
• India must tie up with its Arab friends like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to pursue large-scale regional projects in Eurasia. 
• The European Union, which is stepping up its engagement with the region through its eastern initiative, could also be an important partner for India in the region. 
• India needs to keep Chinese power in check, and facilitate engagement with the region.