Changing Rainfall Patterns Threaten Agriculture

Syllabus: GS3/Agriculture; Climate Change

Context

• Agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change including the alteration in rainfall patterns, which disrupts traditional farming practices and threatens food security.

Impacts of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture

• Rising Temperatures and Declining Yields: Studies suggest that for every 1°C rise in temperature, wheat yields could decline by 4-5%, while rice and maize could suffer similar losses.
  • Rainfed rice yields in India could decrease by up to 47% by 2080 if adaptation measures are not implemented.
  • According to the World Economic Forum (2024), India’s economy could suffer a 16% drop in agricultural output by 2030, which would translate to a 2.8% GDP loss.
  • In Punjab and Haryana, unseasonal rains have led to lower wheat production.
  • In Maharashtra, erratic rainfall patterns have impacted sugarcane and cotton yields.
  • Flood-prone states like Bihar and Assam have seen paddy crops destroyed by excessive monsoon rains.
• Erratic Rainfall Patterns: The Indian monsoon(accounts for nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall) has become increasingly unpredictable.
  • Delayed or deficient monsoons lead to late sowing, affecting crop cycles and yields.
  • Excess rainfall causes waterlogging, damaging crops like paddy and sugarcane.
• Increased Frequency of Extreme Weather Events: More frequent droughts are reducing water availability for irrigation.
  • Cyclones in coastal states such as Odisha, West Bengal, and Andhra Pradesh damage crops and disrupt supply chains.
  • Hailstorms and unseasonal rains destroy standing crops, leading to financial losses for farmers.
  • According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), India lost 33.9 million hectares of crops due to excess rains and an additional 35 million hectares due to drought between 2015 and 2021.
• Soil Degradation and Loss of Fertility: Increased soil erosion due to heavy rains and flooding.
  • Higher temperatures accelerate soil nutrient depletion.
  • Increased salinity in coastal areas due to rising sea levels negatively affects soil quality.
• Water Scarcity and Irrigation Challenges: Over 50% of India’s agriculture depends on monsoons, making it highly vulnerable to erratic rainfall.
  • Declining groundwater levels in states like Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan threaten irrigation.
  • Excessive groundwater extraction has led to alarming depletion levels, especially in states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu.
• Pest and Disease Outbreaks: Rising temperatures create a favorable environment for pests like the fall armyworm and locusts, which destroy crops.
  • Higher humidity increases fungal and bacterial diseases in crops such as wheat, rice, and vegetables.

Government Response and Policy Measures

• National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC): Includes the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA) to promote climate-resilient farming.
• Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY): Focuses on improving water efficiency in irrigation.
• Soil Health Card Scheme: Helps farmers monitor soil nutrients and improve fertility.
• Crop Insurance Schemes: Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) provides financial protection against crop losses.
• Promotion of Climate-Resilient Crops: Research institutions are developing drought-resistant and heat-tolerant crop varieties.
• Sub-Mission on Agricultural Extension (SMAE): It focuses on disseminating knowledge, improving farm practices, and promoting sustainability.
• National Mission on Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA): It emphasizes climate-resilient farming practices, addressing the challenges posed by changing weather patterns.
• Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY): Supports climate-resilient infrastructure and promotes sustainable agricultural practices.
• Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY): Encourages organic farming as a sustainable adaptation strategy to climate variability.
• Weather Forecasting and Early Warning Systems: The IMD has enhanced its forecasting capabilities to provide accurate and timely weather updates, helping farmers plan better.

Climate Proofing Strategies For Agriculture in India

• Climate-Smart Crop Varieties: Development of drought-resistant, flood-resistant, and heat-tolerant crop varieties by institutions like Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR).
  • Promotion of traditional and indigenous crop varieties that are naturally resilient.
• Sustainable Water Management: Adoption of micro-irrigation systems such as drip irrigation and sprinkler irrigation to improve water use efficiency.
  • Watershed management and rainwater harvesting to mitigate water stress in dry regions.
  • Promotion of System of Rice Intensification (SRI) to reduce water consumption in paddy cultivation.
• Agroforestry and Soil Conservation: Encouraging agroforestry models where trees are integrated into farmlands to enhance carbon sequestration and soil fertility.
  • Zero-tillage farming and cover cropping to maintain soil health and prevent erosion.
  • Use of organic fertilizers and biochar to enhance soil resilience.
• Digital and Technological Interventions: Use of AI-based weather forecasting and mobile advisory services to help farmers prepare for adverse weather conditions.
  • Precision farming using drones and sensors to optimize resource use.
  • E-marketing platforms like eNAM to provide better price realization and reduce climate-induced income shocks.
• Livelihood Diversification & Crop Insurance: Promoting integrated farming systems (livestock, fisheries, and horticulture) to reduce sole dependency on crops.
  • Strengthening Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) to provide financial security against climate-related crop losses.
• Policy Support: Government initiatives like the National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) focus on research, capacity building, and technology dissemination to address climate challenges.

Case Studies

• NICRA Villages: NICRA program has demonstrated climate-proofing techniques in over 446 villages, showcasing the effectiveness of integrated approaches.
• Climate-Smart Farming: Initiatives by organizations like the Environmental Defense Fund have promoted low-carbon farming practices, reducing greenhouse gas emissions while enhancing productivity.

Conclusion

• Changing rainfall patterns pose a significant threat to agriculture, demanding urgent action to safeguard the livelihoods of millions of farmers and ensure food security. 
• By adopting climate-resilient practices, improving water management, and supporting farmers through policy interventions, India can mitigate the impact of climate change on its agricultural sector. 
• The journey toward sustainable farming is challenging but essential for the nation’s future.

Source: BS