Climate Change 2021 Report: IPCC

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the report, ‘Climate Change 2021: the Physical Science Basis’.

About

• It is the first part of IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).
• It sets the stage for the Conference of Parties (CoP) 26 conference in November 2021.
• The report mentioned that Indian subcontinent may see an increase in heat waves and droughts, rainfall events and a likelihood of more cyclonic activity.

Other Key Highlights of the 6th Assessment Report

• Confidence: 
  • In the previous assessment reports, the IPCC had said that human activities were “likely”, or “most likely” behind the rising temperatures. 
  • The latest report says it was “unequivocal” that this was indeed the case.
• Averages v/s Extremes: 
  • In a 2°C warmer world, some days can be 6°C to 8°C, or even 10°C, warmer.
  • That is how global warming will manifest at the local levels.
• Correlation with intensified rainfall, droughts and heat waves: 
  • At a global scale, extreme daily rainfall events would intensify by about 7% for each additional degree Celsius of global warming.
• Compound events: 
  • When two or more climate change-induced events happening back to back, triggering each other, or occurring simultaneously, it is called Compound Event.
  • For Example:
    • Recent events in Uttarakhand, involving heavy rainfall, landslides, snow avalanche, and flooding, is a good example of a compound event.
    • Glacial lake bursts in the Himalayan region accompanied by heavy rainfall and flooding.
  • Compound events can be several times deadlier.
  • If occurring one after the other, they give little time for communities to recover, thus making them much more vulnerable.
• Aerosol Emissions: 
  • Increase in Aerosol increases monsoon precipitation in South and Southeast Asian and reduces heat waves.
• Sea Temperature:
  • The Indian Ocean, which includes the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, has warmed faster than the global average.
  • The sea surface temperature over Indian ocean is likely to increase by 1 to 2 °C when there is 1.5°C to 2°C global warming.
  • In the Indian Ocean, the sea temperature is heating at a higher rate than other areas, and therefore may influence other regions.
• 1.5 degree warming was likely even before 2040
  • A global net-zero by 2050 was the minimum required to keep the temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius. 
  • Without India, this would not be possible. 
  • Even China, the world’s biggest emitter, has a net-zero goal for 2060.
• Nationally Determined Contributions under Paris Agreement:
  • NDCs have to be updated with stronger action, mandatorily, every five years from 2025. 
  • But the Paris Agreement also “requested” countries’ NDCs by 2020. 
  • Because of the pandemic, the deadline was extended to 2021, and expired at the end of July.
  • About 110 countries have updated their NDCs, but not China, India, or South Africa.
  • India, the third largest emitter in the world, has been holding out, arguing that any further burden would jeopardise its continuing efforts to end poverty.
• Net Zero Target
  • Net-zero is a state in which a country’s emissions are compensated by absorption and removal of GHGs from the atmosphere through natural processes as well as futuristic technologies such as carbon capture and storage.
  • It also requires phasing out fossil fuel-based energy.
  • More than 100 countries including the USA, China and EU have declared their net zero emission targets by mid century.
  • India has not yet declared its Net-Zero Target
• Results of ambitious emission reductions might begin to show over time scales of 10 to 20 years.

Image Courtesy: TH

India’s Actions

• Energy revolution underway: 
  • Indian efforts to combat climate change along with poverty reduction ranges from
    • household electrification to smart meters, 
    • scaling up solar and wind to new ambitions in biofuels and hydrogen, 
    • energy efficiency to clean cooking for millions, 
    • electrification of railways to electric vehicles, 
    • being the first country with a cooling action plan to skilling thousands in green jobs.
• Next, the discourse must shift from energy to the economy. 
  • There are very few sunrise sectors that are not low-carbon.
  • India must tap new technologies and business models which are proven but need policy and regulatory support like
    • new technology frontiers (green hydrogen), 
    • new business models (distributed and digitalised services, for distributed energy, EV charging, cold chains), 
    • new construction materials (low-carbon cement, recycled plastic), 
    • new opportunities in the circular economy of minerals, municipal waste and agricultural residue, and 
    • new practices for sustainable agriculture and food systems. 

Way Ahead

• Small window of opportunity to take corrective measures. 
  • Hypothesis that “aggressive emission cuts beginning now could reduce warming after 2050”., may set the tone for climate diplomacy.
  • In about three months from now, climate negotiators will meet in Glasgow, where upscaling climate ambitions is likely to be the major issue of contention. 
• Need to shift from the sensational to the strategic
  • In order to stabilise rise in temperatures, two things have to happen:
    • Anthropogenic emissions must become net-zero and, 
    • In the interim, cumulative emissions cannot exceed a global carbon budget. 
  • To stay within the 1.5°C limit, starting in 2020, the remaining global carbon budget is 300-500 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) (with a likelihood of 50 per cent- 83 per cent).
  • As per CEEW analysts, China would consume 87 per cent of the global carbon space (if it reached net-zero in 2060) and the US would eat up 26 per cent (if it reached net-zero in 2050) despite promising net zero. 
  • Clearly, mere announcements of net-zero targets do little to retard the “carbon grab” of the largest emitters.
• .Net Zero v/s Poverty
  • India has rightly argued that any commitment to net-zero would mean compromising developmental goals of countries.
    • It will be highly unsustainable as Poverty is the greatest Polluter.
  • India has pointed to the developed countries’ poor track record with respect to fulfilling their technology transfer and financial-aid commitments to developing countries.

Source: TH