National Targets to Limit Global Warming

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• According to a study, even enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions are not nearly enough to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C.

Image Courtesy: DTE

Paris Agreement

• Goals: 
  • The agreement stated that NDCs would work to achieve the goal of keeping global temperature rise this century to well below 2°C above the pre-industrial level and to pursue efforts to limit the rise to 1.5°C.
  • The countries agreed to provide voluntary targets called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for how they will limit or reduce emissions.
• Ratcheting Mechanism: 
  • As per the agreement’s “ratcheting mechanism”, nations are expected to submit progressively more ambitious NDCs every five years. 
• India’s first NDC has three main elements:
  • An emissions-intensity target of 33%–35% by 2030 below 2005 levels;
  • To increase the share of non-fossil-based energy resources to 40% of installed electric power capacity by 2030 with support;
  • To create an additional (cumulative) carbon sink of 2.5–3 Giga Tonnes ( Gt) CO2  through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.
• Missing deadlines: 
  • Accordingly, countries had to submit their second NDC by 2020, but of the 192 parties to the Paris Agreement a majority did not meet the deadline.
  • Till october 2021, 49 countries have yet not submitted NDCs.
  • Only three G20 members have announced other new mitigation pledges for 2030. 
• New Goals:
  • Ahead of CoP 26:
    • Many countries have announced new and updated nationally determined contributions (NDC) ahead of the 26th session of the Conference of Parties (CoP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
  • Earlier Goals not achieved:
    • They are, however, nowhere close to what the world needs to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
  • Reductions in new commitments:
    • These new commitments take 7.5 percent off predicted 2030 greenhouse gas emissions compared to the old commitments. 
    • Reductions of 30 per cent are needed to stay on the least-cost pathway for 2°C and 55 per cent for 1.5°C
• Countries: 
  • EU and UK:
    • Analytics and New Climate Institute EU-27 and the UK submitted more ambitious NDCs of reducing GHG emissions by 55 per cent and 68 per cent below 1990 levels by 2030.
  • US: 
    • The US, under the new President Joe Biden, has upped its target and pledged 50-52 per cent reduction below 2005 levels by 2030. 
  • Japan:
    • Japan has proposed a stronger NDC target of 46 per cent reduction of GHG emissions below 2013 levels by 2030 but is yet to formally submit it.
• Burden of Growth:
  • Skewed burden: 
    • Comparison of per capita emissions in the 45 countries in 2019 and then again in 2030, if the NDCs are achieved, reveals how skewed the global burden of CO2 reduction is against developing countries (see ‘Unequal world’).
    • Countries with HDI ranking and efforts: 
      • Zambia and Micronesia, ranked 146th and 136th in Human Development Index (HDI), have pledged to reduce their per capita emissions by over 50 per cent, 
      • Japan and Australia will reduce them by 30 per cent by 2030 (see ‘Low on ambition’). 
      • Russia will increase them by 16 per cent.
      • Botswana, ranked 100 in HDI, has committed a 15 per cent reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 as compared to 2010 levels. 
• Mockery of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities:
  • Clearly, countries low on HDI and with minuscule per capita footprint, are shouldering the burden of emissions reductions, while historical polluters play a small part.
  • This is not only a mockery of the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities, but a serious human rights concern as poor nations attempt to constrain their developmental health in trying to abide by the Paris Agreement.

Project

• Initiated by: 
  • Down To Earth and Centre for Science and Environment, Delhi, have attempted to project the emissions of 45 countries — a mix of developed and developing economies, including EU-27 — for 2020-2030.
• Conditional targets: 
  • In many cases, countries have provided “conditional” NDCs — they will enhance their ambition if climate finance and other support is provided.
  • Ethiopia: For instance, Ethiopia has said it will reduce emissions by 14 per cent (unconditional) and 68.8 per cent (conditional) by 2030 as compared to the “business as usual” scenario. 
  • Zambia: Commits to reduce its emissions by 25 per cent (under limited international support) and towards 47 per cent (with substantial international support).

Image Courtesy: DTE

Greenhouse gas emissions

• Highest right now: 
  • The current atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are higher than at any time in the last two million years. 
• Temporary dip:
  • The temporary dip in emissions in 2020 — CO2 as well as non-CO2 emissions — is expected to rise again in 2021 and reach a level only slightly lower than the record high in 2019, according to the Emissions Gap Report, 2021 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
  • But the atmospheric CO2 that year was over the decade’s average, according to the latest report the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released October 25.  
• Fossil energy: 
  • Fossil energy emissions could grow 4.8 per cent in 2021 (excluding cement), and global emissions in 2021 are expected to be only slightly lower than the record level of 2019, according to the UNEP report.
  • Governments are set to produce more fossil fuels than what the world requires to limit global warming to 1.5°C, an earlier UNEP report had flagged.

Image Courtesy: DTE

Way Ahead: Net-zero Emissions

• Definition: 
  • Net-zero emission is a state where the sum of all anthropogenic emissions and removal is zero. 
• Implementation: 
  • A thorough implementation of the net-zero pledges, in addition to new or updated unconditional NDCs and pledges, lowered the temperature estimates markedly to 2.2°C (range 2.0-2.5°C) with a 66 percent chance. 
• Problem: 
  • The only challenge is that currently net-zero plans are vague and not included in NDCs. Only 49 countries, plus the European Union, have pledged a net-zero target so far. 
• 1.5 degree celsius target: 
  • To align with a 1.5°C target of limiting warming, global CO2 emissions must reach net zero around 2050, with global GHG emissions reaching net-zero 15-20 years later. 
  • A delay of 15-20 years in either net-zero CO2 or net-zero GHGs implies limiting warming to 2°C rather than 1.5°C, the report said. 
• Existing targets:
  • show variations in scope and large ambiguities in terms of sectors that are included for net-zero.
• Other Report: 
  • It is also important to reduce methane emissions, the UN report said.  This will be more effective and faster in controlling the rise in temperature than reducing carbon dioxide.
  • Reduction of methane emissions from fossil fuels, waste and agriculture sectors can contribute to closing the emissions gap and reduce warming in the short term.

Source: DTE