Down To Earth(July1-15 2023)

Population and its impacts on environment

Context:

Population per se is not the determinant of environmental problems; it is their consumption pattern that leads to environmental degradation.

About:

• A smaller population could still be more destructive:
• Countries like the USA, Australia and or European nations with smaller populations have emitted huge amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, adding to our common jeopardy.
• So, population per se is not the determinant of environ­mental problems, but it is their consumption pattern that leads to environmental degradation as they overexploit land, water, forests and other resources, but exter­nalise the source.
• On the other hand, the poor and developing countries have intensive use of their local environment. They depend on native forests, land and water bodies with visible destruction like resource depletion and pollution, but their combined impact on the environment is less than developed countries with smaller populations.

Countries with its population and environmental footprint: Countries like the USA with 336 million people or Australia with 26 million people have much greater environmental footprints than that of India with more than 1400 million people. The ‘Earth Overshoot Day' estimates that if everyone lived like an American, then five Earths needed; as an Australian, 4.5 Earths needed and as an Indian, only 0.8 of an Earth needed. The Indian popula­tion has a smaller environmental footprint because it is poor. It is poverty that makes us frugal.

• There is no doubt that more people will need more resources to survive. But it cannot be argued that population growth is an indicator of the resultant environmental degradation.

Human Population and resources availability: The ‘carrying capacity of the earth' is the total number of people who can live on Earth sustainably. In  the book ‘The Population Bomb' by Paul Ehrlich advocated for immediate action to limit population growth on a finite planet. It was reiterated later by the Club of Rome in 1972 by a report ‘The Limits to Growth' that aptly demonstrated the dynamic relationship between increasing consumption and the idea of ‘planetary boundaries' which cannot be crossed without risking severe environmental change.

• There are three multi-pronged approaches to keep balance between population and resources:
  • India is already seeing a decline in its Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which has dropped below the replacement level, i.e. 2.1, which represents the level at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, resulting in zero population growth.

Fertility: an indicator of progress The latest National Family Health Survey reveals that Bihar, Jharkhand, Manipur, Meghalaya and Uttar Pradesh are the only outliers, with fertility levels above the average of the country. Fertility is not about population control but about women's right over reproductive decisions. It is an indicator of progress. It is well known that fertility declines only when girls are educated, women are empowered and they have health and economic security. Negative impacts of low TFR: As already being experienced by developed countries, a low TFR comes with its own set of problems, for example, a skewed workforce – to – population ratio results in a high tax burden on those who are employed and a significantly lesser number of young people to take care of the elderly.

• Utilising the population dividend by education and skilling. Every human being is a wonderful creature and an asset. There is a need to make sure that as our population grows, we do not end up being in the self-destructive mode as the rest of the world.
• There is a need to fix the environment question without compromising the aspira­tional idea of a global middle class. The lifestyle of the global consuming class is about market forces and the economics that drives wealth creation.

There is a need to reduce the population by orders of magnitude, because humans are no longer a direct part of the natural food chain. For this, we have to focus on popula­tion regulation.

Third pole melting away

Context:

• Himalayan glaciers have been disappearing 65% faster since 2010 which could drastically reduce water flows in the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra.

About:

• Latest assessment from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), an intergovernmental institute serving the eight Himalayan countries, pointed that the regions of the Hindu Kush Himalayas are seeing an increase in mean temperature, with an average observed trend of 0.28°C per decade from 1951 to 2020.
• This is likely to impact the cryosphere, and in particular glacial melt, which is a major contributor of water for Himalayan rivers like the Ganga, the Brahmaputra and the Indus.

About Cryosphere: It is the part of the Earth's climate system that includes solid precipitation, snow, sea ice, lake and river ice, icebergs, glaciers and ice caps, ice sheets, ice shelves, permafrost, and seasonally frozen ground. The term “cryosphere” traces its origins to the Greek word 'kryos' for frost or ice cold.

Why Himalayan Glaciers are more vulnerable?

According to the ICIMOD:

• Already, mass loss of glaciers has accelerated in the first two decades of this century.
• One reason for the rapid ice loss is that the Tibetan plateau, like the other two poles, is warming at a rate up to three times as fast as the global average, by 0.3°C per decade.
• The average elevation of the region is too high which favours absorbing energy from rising, warm, moisture – laden air.

What are the consequences?

• If average global temperatures stay below 1.5°C, the region will experience more than 2°C of warming which can cause to lose 30 to 50 percent of Himalayan glaciers by 2100, and if emissions are not reduced, the rise will be 5°C.
• Peak water in most basins will be reached around mid century, and water availability will decline by 2100.
• The Hindu Kush Himalayas will also see a decline in snowfall of 30 to 50 per cent in the Indus basin; 50 to 60 percent in the Ganga basin; and 50 to 70 percent in the Brahmaputra basin between 2070 and 2100, as against the average from 1971 to 2000.
• The ICIMOD noted an increase in disasters like landslides, avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in recent years. Warming may lead to an increase in snow avalanches, while glacial retreat will result in a rise in GLOFs, especially by the mid century.

About GLOF: A glacial lake is formed as the ice in a glacier melts and water fills up the space between the glacier and the moraine – the wall of debris – in front of the glacier. As the pressure of water increases – due to melting or a trigger such as a large ice avalanche into the lake – the lake may breach the containing moraine walls, potentially driving millions of tonnes of water, boulders and debris before it.

• For biodiversity, the report highlights range shifts, ecosystem degradation, species decline and extinction. By 2100, Indian Himalayas may see nearly a quarter of its endemic species wiped out, it says with medium confidence.

High stakes involved About 60% of the Himalayan region features seasonal cryosphere (snow, glaciers, permafrost and glacial lakes), a major source of water and ecosystem services, which is vulnerable. Two thirds of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau will be degraded by 2071– 2099 under high emissions scenarios. Between 2002 – 2004 and 2018 – 2020, western Himalayas lost 8,340 sq km of permafrost area, while Uttarakhand Himalayas lost 965 sq km between 1970 – 2000 and 2001 – 2017.

• Glaciers are time capsules. And when they melt, they release the elements of that recorded air back into circulation. As the frozen reserves of fresh water make their way down to the oceans, they are contributing to sea-level rise that is already making life difficult in the heavily populated low-lying deltas and bays.
• The most detailed survey of the cryosphere in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region as part of the Hindu Kush Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme conducted by the ICIMOD, highlighted the three key policy recommendations:
  • The world must focus on lowering carbon emissions. The challenges of managing the cryosphere will only increase if the world warms at a faster rate.
  • The expansion of observation networks and data-sharing agreements across the extended HKH region.
  • Improvements in research and observation should be used to anticipate disasters such as GLOFs and avalanches, and put processes in place to minimise their impacts.

Groundwater Extraction and Associated Issues

Context:

• Excessive groundwater extraction is triggering land subsidence in the Indo – Gangetic plain.

About:

• Groundwater generally resides in pores or aquifers within the soil. When large amounts of groundwater are extracted year after year, a void is created in the pores. This causes collapse or compaction of the soil, leading to land subsidence.
• The Indo – Gangetic plain, which has stratified layers of sand and clay, is highly prone to subsidence.

Freshwater availability in India: The country has only 4 percent of the world's freshwater supplies, while it hosts around 18 percent of the world's population. The belief that the country receives sufficient rainfall to fulfil the needs of its large population does not carry much weight. Only around 8 percent of the rainwater received is harvested. Three, more than 90 percent of the groundwater (which should have been recharged by rainwater) is claimed by agricultural practices — and is shamelessly misused.

State-wise changes in average groundwater levels between 2000 and 2022:

• It had worsened in 10 states and Union Territories. Punjab was the worst, with a groundwater table drop of 150 m between 2000 and 2022. It is followed by Meghalaya (13 m) and Uttar Pradesh (10.6 m).

Case study to understand the impact of groundwater extraction in rural areas of Punjab and Haryana: After the high agricultural advancement and practices, the two states saw tremendous groundwater dependency for irrigation. Although the two states lie in an arid to semi-arid zone which sees moderate precipitation in the monsoon months, this is not enough to recharge aquifers to their previous level, hence causing land deformation, which is mostly witnessing tensional, compressional and shear cracks with vertical, horizontal and diagonal orientations in nature.

A global crisis:

• The first case of land subsidence due to groundwater extraction was reported in California, USA, in the early 1990s, where families were evacuated after certain regions recorded subsidence of up to 150 m, over 50 years.
• The San Joaquin Valley of California, land continues to sink by 0.3 m per year due to excessive pumping of groundwater for a commercial orchard, which has caused permanent subsidence and landslides in the area.
• In Southeast Asia, the rapid growth of megacities has led to a pressing design problem that many governments are only just starting to address. Jakarta is considered the world's fastest sinking city. With 40 percent of the city already below sea level, it is predicted that by 2050, some 95 per cent of North Jakarta will be underwater.
• Bangkok in Thailand and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam are also sinking, with subsidence rates of up to 2 cm and 5 cm per year, respectively.

Solution:

• As per the report ‘Sinking cities: Two ways to fight land subsidence', of all the cases of land subsidence worldwide, 77 percent are caused by human activities, with groundwater extraction accounting for 60 percent. It also adds subsidence damages critical infrastructure such as buildings and roads, changes drainage patterns and increases the risk of flooding.
• Land subsidence cannot be reversed by groundwater recharge. So, the only solution is to arrest the over extraction of groundwater.
• This can be achieved through a series of interventions, starting with water budgeting for high-risk regions.
• In India, several villages have already adopted water budgets, where people compute the amount of water available and used. Cities should also implement similar budgets.

What are the way forward:

• Ground verification is required to understand the damage and scale. The entire process is complex and time consuming.
• City administrators are slowly trying to ensure water supply from rivers and water bodies to ensure less consumption of groundwater.
• Such events can be spread over a radius of a few km to several km. So, it requires studying of localised satellite images that show subsidence, corroborated with groundwater extraction rates.
• Another step is reviving water bodies that can aid groundwater recharge. For example, water bodies are a part of the urban landscape in the USA.
• In India, as per the recently released waterbody census, almost one out of every four urban water bodies is defunct

Tiger Population

Context:

• India's tiger bureaucracy recently claimed that the country has attained a wild tiger population of about 3,000 and that their population should now be capped at 3,500 – 4,000.

About:

• In April 2023, India announced its wild tiger population which was increased to 3,167 from just 1,400 in 2006.
• However, almost 30 percent of the tigers roam outside the protected areas and regularly enter human habitations. Tigers are believed to be leaving forests in pursuit of herbivores into human dominated landscapes since the natural flora on which they survive is overtaken by invasive species such as lantana.
• There is concern over shrinking tiger corridors — patches that connect two large areas of forest — due to the construction of linear infrastructure such as railway lines, highways and canals.
• The tiger bureaucracy claims there were about 1,800 tigers in the early 1970s and this number rose steadily to 3,600 by 2002, before suddenly crashing to 1,400 by 2006.
• The crash happened because in 2005, a task force appointed by the then Prime Minister replaced the widely followed practice of using pugmarks to count tiger numbers with a new national tiger estimation (NTE) process.
• Using it, the tiger bureaucracy had ‘reset' the base tiger numbers from 3,600 in 2002 to an improbable low of 1,400 in 2006, thus setting the stage for claims of successes in subsequent years.
• At the same time, instead of making the raw data available for public scrutiny, the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) releases glossy summary reports every four years only.

Does this mean that India's forests are nearing their carrying capacity to support tigers?

• India's current reserves cover nearly 20 percent of the 380,000 sq km of forests that can support tigers. The wild animal's population is at very low densities in the forests of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and the northeastern states. So, the country has a carrying capacity of 10,000 to 15,000 tigers.
• The present compassionate but unscientific solutions to emergent conflicts, such as feeding and rescuing incapacitated wild tigers, artificially enriching tiger habitats, and above all, translocating “problem” tigers, should be abandoned. Only then can we attain the important goal of rewilding viable populations of our national animal across its former range.

Investment in tigers:

• India is currently reassessing its tiger conservation campaign. The country today is home to 70 percent of the world's wild tiger population. It also recently became the most populous country, surpassing China.
• The rising tiger numbers have sparked debates around capping the tiger population to arrest human – tiger conflicts. Instead, the focus should be on management of human wildlife conflict in a way that balances the needs of humans and wildlife.
• There is massive scope for improving our forest management practices. India has 53 tiger reserves spread over 75,000 sq km, which means a significant portion of the forests can still be conserved to provide sanctuary for tigers. Just 20 tiger reserves cover one-third of the area for tiger conservation with less than 100 tigers, highlighting inequitable population distribution.

Conserving tigers:

• Tigers will thrive only in landscapes that include clusters of connected populations. Landscape genetics studies have shown that linear infrastructure, like roads, negatively impacts tiger movement.
• The revised assessment for tigers from International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) reveals that the species is recovering globally.
• But in India, tigers have recovered only in some parts of the country. The next 50 years should ensure tiger recovery happens across the country to maintain the genetic variation.
• The future of tiger conservation should be inclusive. Human rights must be kept paramount in action to facilitate tiger conservation. Landscapes inhabited by tigers harbour many other species, whose conservation is equally important.

Conclusion:

• Not only does India have the largest wild tiger population in the world, but it records the animal surviving in different landscapes — the Terai Arc, Central India, the Western Ghats, the Sunderbans, the Northeast and the Gangetic Plains.
• The conservation problems of today require us to move beyond counting tigers to directional research. These could include understanding movement of tigers living in human – dominated landscapes, social tolerance and carrying capacities in tiger landscapes.
• India has safeguarded the largest surviving population of wild tigers from extinction by embracing a metapopulation framework wherein small protected areas (PAs) are connected through functional habitat corridors. Tiger dispersal between PAs is essential for maintaining gene flow and sustaining healthy tiger populations. Thus, dispersal is one of the most sensitive aspects of tiger conservation, which is under a grave but preventable threat.
• India is set to undergo massive development in the coming years, particularly in rural areas. Thus, the next decade is critical in terms of infrastructure development, conservation and harmonisation of the two.
• The future of large carnivore conservation depends primarily on the continued support of local communities.
• Going forward, we need to continually monitor areas prone to conflict to understand the site – specific drivers of animal conflict. Thus, conflict management has to be based on comprehensive background information emanating from evidence based research.

Mains Questions

1. Other than population, our consumption pattern leads to environmental degradation. Critically analyse.
2. Fertility is not just about population control but more about women's right over reproductive decisions. Evaluate the statement.
3. Why Himalayan glaciers are more vulnerable to climate change? Give a detailed account of anthropogenic factors responsible for it.
4. What are the issues associated with groundwater extraction? What measures are required to conserve groundwater?
5. What do you understand about habitat conservation and how can we avoid human, animal conflict by conserving the habitat?